Danske Bank analysts expect the global economy to continue to weaken in coming months but see a stabilisation and a modest rebound on the back of monetary and fiscal stimulus after that.
Key quotes
“Our new base case of no solution to the trade war between China and the US ahead of the 2020 US presidential election has led us to downgrade our growth trajectory for both advanced and emerging markets.”
“The risk of a more pronounced downturn has increased (we assume 30% probability of a recession in the next two years). However, in our view, there is also possible upside from a sudden breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations, more aggressive central bank easing and still strong consumer confidence.”
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