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Aussie Retail Sales overview

Eearly Friday at 00:30 GMT sees Australia’s seasonally-adjusted Retail Sales figures for August, forecast to clock in at a scant 0.2%, while the previous month came in flat at 0.0%. Australia’s domestic economy has struggled to get the gears of growth turning at a happy rate, and with the US and China teetering on the edge of an all-out trade war, Australia’s closest trading partner sees not only  increased impact in negative headlines, but China data is almost more important for AUD traders than Aussie figures, especially after yesterday’s Trade Balance numbers failed to spark any upside momentum in the AUD/USD. As noted by analysts at TD Securities, “Retail sales for Jul were flat, and we look for a modest pickup to +0.2%/m in August in line with buoyant confidence, solid employment and RBA liaison saying retail conditions were around trend (mkt +0.3% but a wide range of flat to +0.7%/m).

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

The Aussie is struggling to hang on after losing the 0.71 handle in Thursday’s market action, and as noted by FXStreet’s own Valeria Bednarik, the AUD/USD could be primed for further downside: “the pair attempted to recover ground but was capped by sellers around the 0.7100 figure, and despite oversold, the risk remains skewed to the downside, given that in the 4 hours chart, the pair extended further below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining an almost vertical slope but some 100 pips above the current level. The Momentum indicator bounced from extreme levels, but its upward strength has already eased, while the RSI maintains its downward slope, now at around 20. The pair could correct higher at the end of the week, should equities recover ground on the back of a strong US employment report, which could bring some relief to equities.”

Support levels: 0.7085 0.7050 0.7010

Resistance levels: 0.7170 0.7200 0.7225

Key notes

AUD/USD analysis: at two-year lows and poised to extend decline

China Talk and.. Action

AUDUSD & NZDUSD Daily Forecast

About the Aussie Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it”s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.