The German Prelim CPI Overview
The German inflation data is up for release later this session at 1200 GMT, with the CPI figures expected to rebound to 0.3% m/m in May, while accelerating to 1.8% annually.
Germany’s regional CPIs released earlier today suggest an upbeat outcome of the harmonized German CPI readings due to be reported later today. North Rhine Westphalia inflation for the month of May MoM came in at 0.4% versus 0.0% prev. In Hesse, MoM arrived at 0.5%, versus 0.0% prev. Meanwhile, in Bavaria MoM also rebounded to 0.5%, versus -0.1% last. In Saxony, May inflation MoM stood at +0.5% versus +0.0% previous, while Baden-Wuerttemberg’s also came in at MoM 0.5% vs. +0.0% prior.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
According to Slobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers, “current bounce is seen as positioning for fresh weakness, following failure on an initial attack at 1.15 support. Strong bearish momentum and daily MA’s in firm bearish setup, support the notion. Falling 5SMA (1.1624) is expected to ideally cap recovery, with extended upticks to face strong barriers at 1.1681/95 (broken weekly cloud top / Fibo 38.2% of 1.1996/1.1509, reinforced by falling 10SMA). An eventual break below 1.15 handle would open Fibo support at 1.1447 (50% retracement of 1.0340/1.2555 rally). Only break and close above 10SMA would sideline bears for stronger correction.”
Key Notes
German inflation is due for release, in advance of the euro area figure tomorrow
EUR/USD Forecast: Is EUR heading back to Jan 2017 lows?
European FX Outlook: German inflation is set to rise on fuel prices
About the German Prelim CPI
The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
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