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RBA Monetary Policy Statement overview

Early Friday at 00:30 GMT sees another iteration of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy, and the Australian central bank recently raised their internal forecasts for domestic growth, and the upcoming SoMP is expected to reveal further indications of the RBA’s forward-looking expectations, as well as a further fleshing-out of potential risks on the horizon.
As noted by analysts at Westpac, “the statement on Tuesday indicated that they have raised their growth forecasts (3.5% for 2018 and 2019) and reduced their unemployment rate forecasts (4.75% by 2020). Inflation forecasts might be a touch higher.”

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

Regardless of the RBA’s showing today, which is almost guaranteed to be a non-starter anyway, FXStreet’s own Valeria Bednarik noted that the Aussie is heading into Friday’s action on a fresh bearish inflection: “post-Fed and with Wall Street turning red, the pair lost some ground now heading into the Asian opening around the key 0.7250 level, a strong static support, and more relevant, also above 0.7200, the 61.8% retracement of the September/October slide. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart show an increased bearish potential as the pair is defying a bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMA are around the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline in the 0.7140 region. Technical indicators have turned south within positive ground, now nearing their midlines, leaning the risk toward the downside.”

Support levels: 0.7250 0.7200 0.7165      

Resistance levels: 0.7315 0.7340 0.7375


Key notes

AUD/USD: Australian dollar stalled at 0.72990; critical support at 0.72600

AUD/USD analysis: pressuring a strong static support, 0.7200 next

About the RBA Statement of Monetary Policy