I’m Troubled, but not dazed and confused.
Deep down, I’m a foreign exchange trader. I’ve been doing it most of my adult life. And I’d like to think that I’ve been pretty successful by not only following my “gut”, but also by being disciplined in my convictions. And that’s what bothers me.
The news that was “leaked” this morning was very, very good news for the Eurozone. And yet the EUR hasn’t been able to break the 1.2620 area. The market is waiting for official announcement from the ECB tomorrow morning after they cut their rates which is completely expected an won’t surprise a soul. So we shouldn’t get any kind of rush tomorrow morning.
Guest post by Matthew Lifson, Foreign Exchange Trader, Market Analyst of Cambridge Mercantile Group.
That leads us to Friday and the Non-Farm payroll number. Many expect this to disappoint which will lead us to the FED meeting the following week and what is the long expected announcement of QE3. Even if the NFP number is good, there will be analysts calling for the FED to continue its easing policy. So that should mean a higher EUR and the anticipation alone should see EUR higher.
So that leads us to the German constitutional court vote next week on the ESM. Do we really expect the court to vote “no” and throw a complete monkey wrench into the ECB bond buying program? I doubt that and most observers doubt that as well. So why don’t we see the EUR higher?
Well maybe it’s the technicals. Maybe the charts are showing some unbelievable resistance levels that are keeping traders away from buying. Well, the fact is that as long as the market remains above the 1.2450 level, there is a good buying sense to the EUR. Most technical traders would like to see a close above 1.2650 to confirm the upside, yet no one seems ready to take it there. So the EUR doesn’t move higher.
Lastly, maybe, just maybe, it’s the “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” attitude that traders are taking. How many times have we waited for the ECB to do something substantial to begin to end this Euro crisis, only to be disappointed. So maybe the trading world is waiting for confirmation that what was leaked this morning is really “official”.
So, that’s what is troubling me. On face value the moves by the ECB should be a lot more EUR positive that we have seen. On that’s what troubles me.
For more on technical lines, events and more, see the EUR/USD forecast.