Another D-Day in the ongoing Catalan crisis. The Catalan parliament will convene on Thursday, October 26th to discuss the next moves. A straightforward declaration of independence is on the cards. The gathering will come one day before the Spanish Senate is expected to approve the measures to suspend the Catalan autonomy.
For the euro, the decision in Catalonia coincides with the all-important ECB decision. It is going to be a “Super Thursday” for the euro. Will EUR/USD finally break out of the tight range?
Last week, Catalonia’s president Carles Puigdemont refused to play by Rajoy’s rules and did not clear he did not declare independence, even though it could have been seen implicitly in his statement. The Spanish government swiftly announced it would suspend the autonomy, invoking Article 155. On Saturday, Madrid announced the measures: it will basically take control of everything: government, parliament, the local police and also the local TV and radio.
The Catalan government, which is still in power, decided to convene the parliament on Thursday. An outright Declaration of Independence, known in Spanish as DUI, will further aggravate the already sensitive situation.
Another option for Puigdemont is to announce early elections. This would make things more complicated but could allow a gradual climb down by both sides.
For the euro, things could be messy on October 26th. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to announce some form of tapering of the QE program, and speculation is rife. Currently, expectations are for cutting the program from 60 to 30 billion euros. This would run until September according to the current reports.
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