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National Bank of Canada analyst, Krishen Rangasamy, point out that global trade dropped again in December, causing inventories to spike at the end of last year, something that does not bode well for growth in early 2019.  

Key Quotes:

“Global trade reportedly fell again last December taking the two-month cumulative decline to roughly 3.5%, the worst since early 2009 when the world economy was mired in recession. And with industrial production not falling as fast as trade, inventories spiked at the end of 2018.”

“The ratio of world industrial production to trade volumes, a proxy for global inventories, jumped in December to its highest since 2016. Such inventory build does not bode well for production and hence growth in early 2019.”