WTI bulls taking back control, but need to clear the 21-D SMA or face supply to June swing lows

• WTI shot up to the 200-hr SMA located at $68.35bbls.
• The high has been $68.66 from a low of $66.31 – bouncing off a six-week low.
• Greenback stays on course in its northerly trajectory within the 94.6100-95.0580 day’s range so far.
• Bulls need  to get above the 21-D SMA to prevent supply back to June swing low.  

At the same time, data reportedly showing a dip in stockpiles at the domestic trading hub at Cushing, Okla, that helped to provide a boost for prices.  This helped to lift oil off the floor after growing global crude output and a surprise rise in domestic supplies yesterday, reported by the Energy Information Administration. However, the most recent data from Genscape has shown a week-on-week decline of 3.6% in stocks to roughly 24.6 million barrels on July 31, according to a source.

Conflicting inventory data

However, that came in stark contrast to the total U.S. crude stocks data yesterday, where an unexpected 3.8 million build of barrels for the week ended July 27, which was according to the EIA who also reported that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week to stand at 409 million barrels –  which does not bode well for oil bulls.

The price of oil has been in a downtrend for a number of weeks. This can be put down to the   Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner producer’s decision to start increasing crude production after more than a year of holding back output due to surging prices this spring, (geopolitical risk to supply in Iran sent Brent up to the  $80bbls mark and WTI through the $73 handle – the highest levels since Nov 2014).

WTI levels

WTI is on the verge of a break below the weekly support of the rising channel that was formed back on 2nd Feb’s weekly stick, 2018, down at $57.88. However, the bulls might have just climbed out of that bearish territory but a close above $69.80, mid-July’s weekly high, which will require bulls to first get above the 21-D SMA at $69.08. Otherwise, a test of the swing low at the 67.00 level is on the cards which guard the mid-June’s lows down at $63.50.