- Following yesterday’s large gain in weekly U.S. crude stockpiles, U.S. oil prices have moved lower for the second session in a row.
- WTi is currently trading at $65.72bbls, between a low of $65.56bbls and $66.26bbls.
Initially, the Trump administration’s campaign on Iran was enough to help boost the price of oil, but report that the U.S., Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will fill the void left by any shortfall helped to cap the upside while technically overbought conditions have warned off some speculators leading to a lag in any follow through much beyond $66.50bbls in WTI, so far.
However, analysts at TD Securities argue for further upside in WTI:
“While the positive supply-side narrative continues to broadly support crude markets, we also expect WTI prices to receive further support in the near-term from a resurgent refinery intake ahead of the summer incentivized by high gasoline cracks,” adding, “The stage is set for a temporary dislocation in oil prices towards $67-70/bbl for WTI, or $77-80/bbl in Brent in the short term.”
The charts are in overbought territory although momentum seems to be stalling which could lead to a full-on correction if stops are triggered clearing out stale longs taking profits as the price buckles below the 61.8 Fibo, at 63.70 and falls out of the rising wedges support at the same level. This will expose the 200-D SMA at 60.80 – Given how coiled the stochastics are across multiple time frames, there is an overwhelming case for the downside. However, should bulls commit to the black gold within the rising wedge, then the case for a test of 69.50 and the 70 psychological level remains on the cards.