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  • WTI holds onto Friday’s recovery moves, firmer after four-week uptrend.
  • UN refrains from direct meddling into Gaza, China blames the US for that.
  • US data cools down inflation concerns, weighs on DXY.
  • China data, risk headlines become the key as bulls battle key hurdle.

WTI wavers around $65.50, easing of late, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the energy benchmark struggles to justify the market’s optimism towards further easy money policy from the Fed as well as geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The reason could be traced from the cautious sentiment ahead of China data.

Friday’s downbeat US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, not to forget the Industrial Production, gave another chance to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers in defending the easy money policy. The Fed aptly took the advantage of recently mixed data to shrug off the push towards policy adjustments.

As a result, the global markets turned positive and weighed on the US dollar index (DXY) as well as the US Treasury yields. The same favored commodity prices and boosted WTI to post the heaviest daily gain in a week.

While oil traders keep searching for fresh clues, no fresh challenges to the Fed’s easy money policies favor risk-on mood.

Also on the positive side was the news suggesting that the United Nations (UN) refrains from any direct meddling in Gaza, due to the US as per China. The Israel-Palestine tussles are turning scary of late, which in turn suggests the oil supply hurdles and back the energy bulls.

It should, however, be noted that China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales for April, expected 9.8% and 24.9% YoY respectively versus 14.1% and 34.2% in that order, will be the key for oil prices amid fears of the downbeat outcome. Meanwhile, upbeat figures could keep the market optimism intact and offer extra support to the oil buyers.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the $66.15-25 area, comprising multiple tops marked since early March, becomes necessary for the WTI bulls before targeting the yearly high of $67.86.


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