Category: USD JPY Forecast

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 15-19



USD/JPY is taking in the view at 6-year highs, as the yen shed over 200 points last week. The pair closed on Friday above the 107 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with only four events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese GDP sagged with a sharp decline, while manufacturing data was a mix. US employment data was soft, but consumer confidence and retail sales beat the estimates.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USDJPY Forecast Sep15-19

  1. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Tuesday, 5:30. Kuroda will host a press conference in Osaka. The markets will be listening closely, looking for hints as to future monetary policy.
  2. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 23:50. Trade Balance is directly linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase yen to pay for Japanese exports. Last month, the trade deficit narrowed to JPY -1.02 trillion, but this was much higher than the estimate of JPY -0.77 trillion. The markets are expecting the deficit to edge lower in August, with an estimate of JPY -0.99 trillion.
  3. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Tuesday, 6:35. Kuroda will deliver remarks at a financial convention in Tokyo. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
  4. All Industries Activity: Friday, 4:30. This is considered a minor release as much of the data has already been released. The indicator came in at – 0.4% last month, slightly lower than the estimate of -0.2%. The markets expecting a turnaround in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at +0.4%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen started the week at 105.18 and touched a low of 104.99. The pair then climbed sharply, hitting a high of 107.39, as resistance held firm at 107.68 (discussed last week). The yen closed the week at 107.28.

Live chart of USD/JPY:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 112.48. This line was important resistance in July 2004 and has remained intact since January 2008.

There is resistance at 110.68. This line represented a high point of a strong dollar rally in August 2008, which started around the key 100 level.

108.58 was last tested in June 2008.

107.68 has weakened as the pair trades above the 107 line. It was a key resistance line back in May 2005 and again in July 2008.

105.44 had held firm since December and has some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels.

104.92 capped the pair around the turn of the year.

104.25 was an important resistance line back in August and continues to provide strong support.

It is followed by 1.0350, which was the bottom of the range after the big leap.

The round number of 103 has shown its strength in late July 2013.

In the narrower range, 102.30 is weak resistance.

102.00 is the final support line for now. It has supported the pair several times and remains an important line that the pair seemed to like very much – the “magnet”.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

The US economy continues to improve, while in Japan concerns grow that another sales tax hike could weigh heavily on the economy. A growing yield gap is favorable to the surging US dollar. The pair’s momentum is upward and we could see the yen continue to lose ground.

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USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 8-12

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 8-12

USD/JPY continues to lose ground as we move away from summer, and closed above the 105 level. It’s a busy week, with 12 events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. As expected, the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. The

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 1-5

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 1-5

USD/JPY remained on high ground in the last week of summer. As traders return, the main event this week is the rate decision in Japan. Will Kuroda signal new moves? Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. US data was mostly positive, continuing the trend seen

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 25-29

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 25-29

USD/JPY moved higher as the Japanese yen surrendered to the greenback’s strength across the board. Inflation data is the highlight among a list of indicators. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Japan recorded a wider trade balance deficit than expected, 1.02 trillion yen, but the

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/JPY floated around the 102 magnet yet again. When will the pair pick a direction?. Trade balance is the main event of the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. The Japanese economy squeezed by 1.7% in Q2, as expected. The sliver lining of

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 11-15

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 11-15

USD/JPY slipped lower mostly due to geopolitics, and showed that the 102 “magnet” is alive and kicking. What’s next for the pair?  GDP is the main event in a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Sanctions from Russia, a flare up in Iraq and

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 4-8

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 4-8

USD/JPY continued rising as Japanese data disappointed and US data shined.   Can the pair finally settle on higher ground? The rate decision is the main event awaiting us in the first full week of August. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Retail sales, industrial production

USD/JPY Forecast Jul. 28 – Aug. 1

USD/JPY Forecast Jul. 28 – Aug. 1

USD/JPY rose from the lows approaching the well known 102 line once again in a week that saw lots of dollar strength. Will it pick a direction now? Consumer related figures such as retail sales and household spending stand out  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. In

USD/JPY Forecast July 21-25

USD/JPY Forecast July 21-25

USD/JPY traded within the known ranges once again. Inflation numbers and the trade balance are in the limelight. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan made no change in policy and left the yen hanging out there. Nevertheless, doubts creeping about the

USD/JPY Forecast July 14-18

USD/JPY Forecast July 14-18

USD/JPY dropped within the range as fear took some hold on the markets. The strengthening of the dollar was outweighed by the advance of the yen . The rate decision is the main event of the week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Japanese figures haven’t been