Category: USD JPY Forecast

USD/JPY Forecast Apr. 14-18



The Japanese yen made a big comeback on the lack of action from the BOJ. Back in the previous range, what is next for the pair? Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The Bank of Japan made no change, despite the hike in the sales tax. Is it waiting to see evidence of economic weakness before acting? The fall of USD/JPY was note solely a yen story: the US dollar weakened across the board in what seemed like a late reaction to the NFP and despite a positive JOLTS report. The move then accelerated after the release of the dovish FOMC minutes. The global stock market falls also boosted safe haven flows to the yen.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDJPY April 14 18 2014 technial analysis dollar yen fundamental outlook sentiment for currency traders

  1. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 4:30. The initial industrial output figure for February showed a disappointing contraction of 2.3%. This could be revised to the upside now, boosting sentiment. 
  2. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 6:00. This wide survey of 5000 homes came short of expectations in recent months, dropping to 38.3 points in February. Another fall is predicted for March, the month just before the sales tax hike.
  3. Tertiary Industry Activity: Thursday, 23:50 The indicator from METI surprised in January with a rise of 0.9%. This may result in a drop for the following month, as the services bought by businesses could have already been adjusted to lower expectations.

* All times are GMT.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen kicked off the week with a downfall. After a temporary stop at the 102.74 line (discussed last week), the pair continued a gradual slide eventually finding support just ahead of the 101.22 line.

Technical lines from top to bottom

The top line is the peak seen in the turn of the year: 105.44. This was challenged several times. Below, 104.80 capped the pair during January.

104.10, the high of April 2014 is currently a minor line, but should be watched. Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges.

102.74 was a stubborn peak during February and is the top line of the current trading range. 102.15 capped the pair during April 2014 and now serves as a minor line within the range.

101.20 provided strong support for the pair during March 2014 and is the low line of support. 100.75 prevented the pair from falling lower during February and is the last backstop before the round number of 100.

100 is not just a round number but also worked as resistance several times in the past.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

After the pair took a severe beating, we could see a correction. It is important to remember that economic momentum is not strong in Japan and that the US remains on track to more tapering and also rate hikes in the not so distant future. Even though the BOJ opted not to act now, it could certainly make a move once data regarding the sales tax hike kicks in, and especially as the yen is now strong.

More:

Further reading:

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