Category: USD JPY Forecast

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 25-29



USD/JPY moved higher as the Japanese yen surrendered to the greenback’s strength across the board. Inflation data is the highlight among a list of indicators. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japan recorded a wider trade balance deficit than expected, 1.02 trillion yen, but the rise in exports was encouraging. In the US, the upbeat housing data certainly gave a boost to the US dollar, which continued carrying the rally with the not dovish FOMC minutes even though geopolitics remained worrying. Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech did not offer anything new, and left the previous trends in tact and even pushed the pair slightly higher.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDJPY Technical analysis chart August 25 29 2014 fundamental outlook dollar yen sentiment

  1. SPPI: Monday, 23:50. The Services Producer Price Index has enjoyed stronger rises in the past three months thanks to the sales tax hike: prices were up 3.6% in June and are expected to follow suit in July with 3.7%. Note that the figure stood around 0.7% before April’s hike.
  2. Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. The level of spending is a good measure of consumer activity, and it also factors inflation. The month of March saw a huge leap as a preparation for the tax hike, but it’s been downhill since then. June saw a drop of 3% and a smaller drop is probable for July: 2.7%.
  3. Inflation data: Thursday, 23:30. Japan publishes national data for July and Tokyo data for July. The focus is on the core y/y data, especially in the Japanese capital. The post-hike numbers were under 3%, with July’s core figure standing at 2.8%. A slightly lower level of 2.7% is expected now. The national figure for July will probably remain unchanged from the 3.3% recorded in June.
  4. Unemployment rate: Thursday, 23:30. Japanese workers enjoy a low level of unemployment. Nevertheless, the surprising jump from 3.5% to 3.7% seen in June was quite disappointing. No change is expected now.
  5. Industrial Production: Thursday, 23:50. This is the initial publication for July. Recent figures have disappointed, with an even stronger deterioration in April. After a drop of 3.4% month over month in June, a small rebound is likely in July: 1.4%.
  6. Retail Sales: Thursday, 23:50. The Japanese consumer is buying less since the rate hike, but recent drops have been minor. After a fall of 0.6% in June, a minor slide of 0.1%  is likely for the month of July. The last rise was recorded in March: a whopping 11% leap that preceded the sales tax hike.
  7. Housing Starts: Friday, 5:00. While this is a volatile figure, the trends do have an impact. Also here, drops have been recorded since the tax hike came into effect. A fall of 9.5% y/y has been seen in June, and a similar plunge of 10.5% is predicted for July.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen began the week with a climb to higher ground and managed to break and settle above the 103 level (mentioned last week). It wasn’t an easy ride from there.

Live chart of USD/JPY:




Technical lines from top to bottom

We start from higher ground this time. 105.44 was the highest level seen since Abe came into power. 104.92 is the next line, after it capped the pair around the turn of the year.

104.10, the high of April 2014 is currently a minor line after the break. Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges. It now switches to support.

The round number of 103 has shown its strength in late July 2013. 102.70 was a stubborn peak during February and now switches to support.

In the narrower range, 102.30 is weak resistance. 102.00 is a round number that supported the pair several times and remains and important line that the pair seemed to like very much – the “magnet”. 101.60 is weak support in the narrower range.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

In Japan, there are growing doubts that the battle against deflation has been won over. Weakness might require more stimulus of all possible sorts. In the US, there is a growing notion that the economy is on a sustainable path of growth, as fears about various sectors is subsiding and as the FOMC is leaning towards tightening.

More: listen to our podcast about Japan:

[audio mp3="http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Market-Movers-podcast-August-12.mp3"][/audio]

Download it directly here.

Further reading:

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/JPY floated around the 102 magnet yet again. When will the pair pick a direction?. Trade balance is the main event of the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. The Japanese economy squeezed by 1.7% in Q2, as expected. The sliver lining of

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 11-15

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 11-15

USD/JPY slipped lower mostly due to geopolitics, and showed that the 102 “magnet” is alive and kicking. What’s next for the pair?  GDP is the main event in a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Sanctions from Russia, a flare up in Iraq and

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 4-8

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 4-8

USD/JPY continued rising as Japanese data disappointed and US data shined.   Can the pair finally settle on higher ground? The rate decision is the main event awaiting us in the first full week of August. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Retail sales, industrial production

USD/JPY Forecast Jul. 28 – Aug. 1

USD/JPY Forecast Jul. 28 – Aug. 1

USD/JPY rose from the lows approaching the well known 102 line once again in a week that saw lots of dollar strength. Will it pick a direction now? Consumer related figures such as retail sales and household spending stand out  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. In

USD/JPY Forecast July 21-25

USD/JPY Forecast July 21-25

USD/JPY traded within the known ranges once again. Inflation numbers and the trade balance are in the limelight. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan made no change in policy and left the yen hanging out there. Nevertheless, doubts creeping about the

USD/JPY Forecast July 14-18

USD/JPY Forecast July 14-18

USD/JPY dropped within the range as fear took some hold on the markets. The strengthening of the dollar was outweighed by the advance of the yen . The rate decision is the main event of the week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Japanese figures haven’t been

USD/JPY Forecast July 7-11

USD/JPY Forecast July 7-11

USD/JPY went back up in the well known range. When will it make a significant move and to which direction? Current account leads the list of indicators. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. The closely watched Tankan Manufacturing Index disappointed with a drop to 12

USD/JPY Forecast June 30 – July 4

USD/JPY Forecast June 30 – July 4

USD/JPY traded in a narrow range once again, failing to find a new direction. Will it make a break in the new quarter? The Tankan indices and industrial output are the main events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. BOJ governor Kuroda defended

USD/JPY Forecast June 23-27

USD/JPY Forecast June 23-27

USD/JPY ticked higher in the range despite US dollar weakness. All in all, no big moves were recorded. The main event this week is the release of inflation numbers. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Japan’s trade balance surprised with a smaller than expected deficit: