EUR/USD Forecast – December 7-11

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

Jean-Claude Trichet laid out the first steps of the exit strategy from the crisis. The Euro didn’t manage to continue upwards, and was hit by the excellent American Non-Farm Payrolls. The upcoming week has a mix of indicators and speeches. Here’s an outlook for the events in Europe, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

In the middle of the week, it seemed that the Euro is enjoying good figures to rise neatly, but this was erased on Friday afternoon. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Following the rate decision last week, which began outlining the exit strategy from the crisis, Jean-Claude Trichet will be making three public appearances in the upcoming week.  The first will be in Paris, on Monday at 8:00 GMT. The second one is more important: it’s an official testimony in front of the European parliament. This will happen on Monday at 13:00 GMT. He might hint about future policy and rate hikes in this appearance, now that recovery is happening. The third public appearance is on Friday at 12:15 GMT, in a conference in London.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: 2800 people in the industry are polled for this survey, that looks forward to the next 6 months. This figure has been on the rise in the past 4 months, but is still in the negative territory, which means that pessimism still rules. Last month’s -7 is predicted to be followed with -3.6 points this time. Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT.
3. German Factory Orders: Germany’s industrial, export oriented economy has enjoyed a rise in orders in the past 5 months, although the pace of growth has been slowing down. Growth of 0.6% is predicted to follow the 0.9% rise that was previously recorded. Published on Monday at 11:00 GMT.
4. German Industrial Production: This industry-related figure isn’t as strong as factory orders. It isn’t on a constant rise – only rising for two consecutive months. The nice 2.7% growth last month is predicted to be followed by a more mild 1.2% rise this time. Published on Tuesday at 11:00 GMT.
5. German Final CPI: Consumer prices in the whole continent began waking up, but the continent’s largest economy doesn’t see inflation. The initial release showed a drop of 0.2% in prices, and this is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday at 7:00, with the final release of the CPI for November.
6. Axel Weber talks: The senior ECB member, who might replace Trichet in the top seat, will be speaking in a conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday at 11:00 GMT. He might also hint about the central bank’s policy.
7. French Industrial Production: The continent’s second largest economy’s industrial production is rather volatile. A neat rise of 1.8% was followed by a drop of 1.5% last month. Economists are usually expecting smaller moves – of less that 1%. Also this time, a rise of 0.5% is predicted. Published on Thursday at 7:50 GMT.
8. ECB Monthly Bulletin: This collection of statistical data trails the rate decision by a week. It gives an insight about the economic situation in the Euro-zone, as the ECB sees it, and might also include suggestions about future steps. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro climbed back out of the range, and reached for the peak of 1.5144 while remaining above 1.50. The NFP sent it tumbling down, almost touching the bottom border of the previous range at 1.4820, before closing at 1.4857.

The previous range lines of 1.48 to 1.5050 still remain on the chart, as in last week’s EUR/USD outlook. Above 1.5050, 1.5144 is now an even-stronger resistance line, holder as such once again.

Looking down, 1.4626 was a swing bottom a few weeks ago is a minor resistance line. The more important resistance line is at 1.4444, where the Euro struggled during the summer.

My sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD.

With recovery becoming more real in the US, the better figures in Europe, such as the ongoing growth,  have less importance.

Here are some interesting analyses for EUR/USD on the web:

• Mohammed Isah sees increasing risk of further downside weakness.
• The Geek Knows brings a weekly outlook for this pair.
• Casey Stubbs sees an opportunity in the latest move by EUR/USD.
• James Chen talked about the long term uptrend. That was before the NFP. I’m curious to see his next EUR/USD analysis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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