EUR/USD Outlook – June 28 – July 2

The troubled Euro expects inflation and employment figures in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

In the past week, the Euro got a positive indicator from the German Ifo Business Climate, but the impact was very limited. This week has more significant indicators. Let’s begin:

1. German CPI: Published on Monday. After showing some signs of picking up, inflation returned to normal in the past two months, rising by 0.1% last month, after a drop in the same small scale beforehand. The initial version of the CPI is collected from the various German states throughout the day. A small rise is expected this time.
2. M3 Money Supply: Published on Monday at 8:00 GMT. The amount of money in circulation usually rises, but the drop seen in the past 3 months is another evidence of less economic activity and an upcoming double-dip recession. Another drop of 0.1% is expected this time.
3. German Unemployment Change: Published on Wednesday at 7:55 GMT. This important figure shows that Germany continues to be the locomotive of the Euro-zone. The number of unemployed people squeezed by 45,000 people, for a third month in a row. Another small drop is expected now. Note that the actual figure was usually better than early forecasts.
4. CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Following Germany’s first release for the inflation figures, the figure for the whole continent is also published. The annualized level of inflation rose to 1.6% last month – still under control. Only a jump above 2% could be significant for the Euro, and this isn’t expected now.
5. Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The all-European unemployment rate is very problematic – 10.1%. The area of 10% has been with us for the past 7 months and this isn’t about to change. Any rise will be a burden on the Euro, and only a fall to a single digit figure will boost the common currency.

The Euro began the week by  descending from a failed attempt to break above 1.2460, and eventually dropped below 1.2330. A false break under 1.2250 was followed by a jump, and the pair closed at 1.2375.

The Euro’s range is 1.2330 to 1.2460. Note that more lines were added on last week’s outlook. The trading ranges of the pair are more narrow now.

Above the strong line of 1.2460, a minor resistance line appears at 1.2520, which was a swing low when the pair was dropping from higher levels. Higher, 1.2670 provides strong resistance, being the highest level in over a month.

Higher, 1.2880 is the next minor line, followed by 1.3114, which was tested from both directions, but that’s quite far now.

Looking down, the Lehman levels at 1.2330 continue to play a small role. The next level of support is at 1.2250, which the pair failed to break in the past week. 1.2150 is a very strong line – it held the pair for some time, and when it collapsed, the fall was quite strong.

1.20 is a round number eyed by many, so it provides further support, and the last line is 1.1876, the year-to-date low.

I remain neutral on Euro/Dollar.

As mentioned last week, range trading indeed continued for another week. Given the looming double dip recession, the European debt issues and risk aversive trading due to slowdown in the US as well, the long term sees further drops. But for now, the narrowing ranges are still with us.

This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

• James Chen analyzes the cautious bearishness of the Euro.
• Marco Hague of TheLFB discusses the week’s trading activity on ForexTv ahead of the G20 meetings, with a look at the Euro.
• Kathy Lien sees more risk in the Euro.
• TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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