Browsing: NZD/USD Forecast

NZDUSD can be trading in a bigger triangle correction, which is fully visible on the weekly chart. Here on the daily chart, we observe current recovery as wave A) as part of a leg C of a triangle, which can once complete push price into the following leg D (ideally around the Fibonacci ratio of 61.8.). That said, leg A) can look for resistance and a push into a corrective wave B) around the 0.704 regions. NZDUSD, Daily Now on the 4h charts, we can see that NZDUSD made a nice three-wave drop at the start of December, which we…

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New Zealand is expected to report a slowdown in Q3 2018, following Australia. Low expectations provide scope for an upside surprise. The Fed decision, scheduled a bit earlier, will impact the magnitude of the reaction.  New Zealand releases its Gross Domestic Report for the third quarter of 2018 on Wednesday, December 19th, at 21:45 GMT. The small South-Pacific nation releases its GDP report only once, making every publication more impactful despite the late release, close to the end of the following quarter. The economy grew by 1% QoQ in Q2, an impressive rate that is equivalent to over 4% annualized…

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The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply on the dovish decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The kiwi dollar is now trading below 0.66. Has it gone too far? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: NZD: Approaching Oversold Territory But Staying Structurally Bearish M-Term – ANZ ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook in light of revising its NZD/USD year-end target to 0.62. ANZ is now bearish on NZD/USD tactically and structurally. “The latest reiteration from the RBNZ that it is still a long way away from tightening (and perhaps could even ease further) has shone a brighter light on the…

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New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report is set to shake the kiwi. Expectations are balanced, allowing for a straightforward reaction.  The current truce in the trade wars creates an upside bias for the NZD/USD. The New Zealand jobs report is published on Tuesday, July 31st, at  22:45 GMT. New Zealand is unique among developed economies to release labor market data only once per quarter. Employment data is always of high importance, and the magnitude of the reaction is greater when it becomes scarce. The jobs report became even more significant due to the change in the mandate of the Reserve Bank…

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The New Zealand Dollar suffered from concerns about trade relations and dropped. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: ANZ discusses NZD outlook around next week’s NZ Q2 inflation data and thinks that in the very near-term, with recent data showing the market remains short, there may be more room for another bounce. However, if the near-term data flow continues to undershoot expectations, and given risk sentiment is vulnerable, there is no reason why the NZD can’t remain under pressure even with stretched positioning. Little support should come from Q2 CPI where our economists see risks as skewed to the…

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Hi traders, On NZDUSD we are tracking a falling price activity which can be counted in five waves from 0.7059 high. We believe this five wave drop can be a higher degree wave 5) as part of a  bigger bearish cycle, which in Elliott wave theory must be structure by five legs. Current drop that is on display is leg five, that can touch levels near the Fibonacci projection zone of 161.8/200.0 from where a new temporary bounce may follow. A bounce in impulsive fashion from the lows and above the upper channel lines would confirm a completed decline and…

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The New Zealand dollar suffered during the latter part of the year due to political fear, especially as Jacinda Ardern was sworn in. But has it gone too far? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook, noticing that the post NZ election period has seen investors aggressively re-position their NZD bets. “From a record long skew at the end of July, positions have unwound to such an extent that new shorts are nearing mid-2015 extremes. So it’s not surprising that over the same period the currency has been by far the worst performing major…

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The kiwi dollar had a rollercoaster period following the elections. Jacinda Ardern’s ascent to leading the country was accompanied by a big fall in the currency, especially due to the plans to change the RBNZ’s mandate. What’s next? Here are two opinions. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: NZD/USD: Relatively Calm After A Busy Political Month; What’s Next? – ING ING FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook noting that after an eventful month, this week provides some relative calm for NZD with only second-tier manufacturing PMI and 3Q PPI inflation data to note (both Fri NZ local time). “The external…

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a transitional period. The previous governor, Graeme Wheeler, is out. In his place, Grant Spencer is only in an interim role. The new government led by Jacinda Ardern is planning a change in the mandate of the central bank, perhaps giving it an employment mandate. So in the interim period, the decision to hold rates is not that important and not surprising either. The statements are not that important. However, the forecasts are made by the staff and they carry more weight, as the staff is probably here to stay. The forecasts see…

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The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure and is getting used to a new range. The kiwi has been on the back foot since the inconclusive elections on September 23rd. When the New Zealand First Party decided to go for Labour’s Jacinda Ardern, the kiwi continued south. Markets preferred the center-right National Party which is considered more market-friendly and also represented continuity. They have been in power for around nine years. New policy in New Zealand Apart from the uncertainty, the new government introduced and discussed a few measures that could hurt the currency directly. They want to change the…

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