Browsing: NZD/USD Forecast

The kiwi dollar had a rollercoaster period following the elections. Jacinda Ardern’s ascent to leading the country was accompanied by a big fall in the currency, especially due to the plans to change the RBNZ’s mandate. What’s next? Here are two opinions. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: NZD/USD: Relatively Calm After A Busy Political Month; What’s Next? – ING ING FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook noting that after an eventful month, this week provides some relative calm for NZD with only second-tier manufacturing PMI and 3Q PPI inflation data to note (both Fri NZ local time). “The external…

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a transitional period. The previous governor, Graeme Wheeler, is out. In his place, Grant Spencer is only in an interim role. The new government led by Jacinda Ardern is planning a change in the mandate of the central bank, perhaps giving it an employment mandate. So in the interim period, the decision to hold rates is not that important and not surprising either. The statements are not that important. However, the forecasts are made by the staff and they carry more weight, as the staff is probably here to stay. The forecasts see…

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The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure and is getting used to a new range. The kiwi has been on the back foot since the inconclusive elections on September 23rd. When the New Zealand First Party decided to go for Labour’s Jacinda Ardern, the kiwi continued south. Markets preferred the center-right National Party which is considered more market-friendly and also represented continuity. They have been in power for around nine years. New policy in New Zealand Apart from the uncertainty, the new government introduced and discussed a few measures that could hurt the currency directly. They want to change the…

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Winston Peters, which held the balance of power for around three long weeks, decided to go for Labour leaders Jacinda Ardern. His NZ First Party will join the Greens in a coalition under Ardern. Markets preferred the incumbent Bill English of the more market-friendly National which held power for around a decade. Peters kept everybody waiting while he was taking his time for consultations and negotiations. The ministerial positions have not been decided just yet but it is clear that Peters will not become the finance minister. The currency doesn’t like it and falls by more than 1%. The high for…

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The New Zealand dollar is under pressure from all sides and against many currencies. What’s in store for NZD/USD and AUD/NZD? Here are several opinions: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: NZD: A Sell On Rallies Ahead Of A ‘Perfect Storm’ – ING ING FX Strategy Research argues that NZD/USD is a sell on rallies ahead of ‘perfect storm’ of rising yields & political risks. “With speculative markets still significantly net long NZD and signs of any political risk premium yet to reach extreme levels, we suspect a narrower focus on the 23 Sep elections could spell further weakness for NZD…

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The New Zealand dollar doesn’t provide too many technical indicators, but it certainly has its share of technical setups. Here are two trading ideas: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: AUD/NZD: A ‘Fading Star’; What’s The Trade? – ANZ ANZ FX Strategy Research favors fading NZD strength from here arguing that the good news story is already well factored in at current elevated levels, and prefers to express that vs AUD.  “We have a mildly negative bias towards the NZD…We think that the recent normalization in the AUD/NZD cross has some scope to continue. It has made an important technical…

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I am looking at the NZDUSD chart. There are a few factors that are making me think it might be time for this pair to turn the tide. The Bigger Picture The Daily chart looks quite bullish to me. There is the major support level at 0.7200. A Bullish Engulfing pattern formed two sessions ago. Today’s candle might end up being a bearish rejection or a pin bar. It seems like bears are not in control anymore (or at least for the foreseeable future). Let’s zoom in and change to 4 Hour chart. 4 Hour Chart It seems like a…

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With the big US events behind us and the president on holiday, perhaps crosses provide better opportunities. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets this week and Canada is seeing oil prices wobble. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Currency investors should consider selling NZD/CAD this week ahead of the RBNZ August policy meeting on Aug 10, advises CitiFX Research in its weekly pick to clients. Citi recommends selling NZD/CAD* around 0.9363 targeting 0.9150 with a stop at 0.9480.  Citi weekly trades provide short term guidance on where they see 1-2 week opportunities in G10 FX markets. For lots more…

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The economy of New Zealand lost 0.2% of its work force in the second quarter of 2017, a big miss against 0.7% that was expected. Year over year, the country still gained 3.1% but this was against an expectation of 4.1%. And while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.8%, it was only thanks to a big fall in the participation rate: 70% instead of 70.6% previously. Wage growth also fell short of expectations, rising 0.8% instead of 0.9% expected. Looking from the outside, these numbers still point to a very robust economy. However, the New Zealand dollar had already…

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The kiwi dollar is overlooked by many. Nevertheless, in some days this pair makes bigger moves than many of its counterparts. After the recent gains, what’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: NZD: Bullish Tech Signal Intact; Levels & Targets – NAB NAB FX Technical Strategy Research still holding a bullish NZD/USD bias since shifting from definitively bearish to bullish in the past three to four weeks. “The 7.5% decline from the February high now looks to  be complete after bullish weekly and monthly closes in May. Fresh positive MT momentum bias helps to confirm the shift in directional bias…

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