Kiwi Drops on Retail Sales – Rate Hike Unlikely Soon
Posted on April 14, 2010 by Yohay
Filed Under Forex News | 6 Comments
NZD/USD usually trades in narrow ranges and is mostly affected by the greenback’s news. This time, local retail sales were really bad and sent the kiwi down – no rate hike coming soon…
Retail sales in New Zealand were bad – they dropped by 0.6%, much worse than early expectations for a rise of 0.2%. Also last month’s figure was revised to the downside to 0.7%. Core retail sales disappointed as well with a drop of 0.9 – early predictions saw a rise of 0.3%. This had its toll on NZD/USD:
Both figures, that touch consumers directly show that the public in New Zealand is still skeptic and cautious. These drops in consuming mean less inflation, and no need for a rate hike. Canada could precede New Zealand with a rate hike. New Zealand will not follow Australia so fast.
NZD/USD, usually a cautious currency pair, made a move – it fell from 0.7140 to 0.7085 and continues dropping. This comes during the Sydney session, when there aren’t many traders out there. When the Tokyo session begins, the fall could be stronger.
NZD/USD technical analysis
The kiwi is supported by the 0.70 line, which is a round number and also served as a support line not long ago. The next support line is quite strong – 0.68 stopped the pair from dropping lower during February. The last time that it was weaker was in September, more than 7 months ago.
If the US dollar weakens significantly, NZD/USD can test a strong resistance line at 0.72, a line it didn’t breach since mid-January.
By the way, I haven’t written an NZD/USD weekly forecast in quite some time. Is there interest in this pair?
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.
Enjoyed the post? You may want to subscribe by RSS feed or Email.Tags: Core Retail Sales,kiwi,NZD/USD,NZD/USD technical analysis,resistance line,Retail Sales,support line
Comments
6 Responses to “Kiwi Drops on Retail Sales – Rate Hike Unlikely Soon”
Leave a Reply
Popular Forex Posts
Daily FX Headlines- Forex Strategy Corner: Bollinger Bands Techniques for Trading September 2, 2010
- EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls September 2, 2010
- US Dollar Forex Options Sentiment Points to Pullbacks September 2, 2010
- The FX Market has now Entered the Pull of Friday NFPs September 2, 2010
- British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen September 2, 2010
-
Stay up to date!
-
-
I always look forward to starting the FOREX week off reading your reviews on the GBP, EUR, CAD and AUD. NZD would be a welcome addition.
Hi Yohay,
Yes, keep the NZD/USD analysis coming.
Thanks.
Yes please give us a NZDUSD analysis and also a AUDNZD too.
Thanks
[...] April 18, 2010 by YohayFiled Under NZD/USD Forecast | Leave a Comment The kiwi was hurt by the drop in retail sales that was reported in the past week. Here’s an outlook for this week’s major events, and [...]
[...] 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard, the governor of the RBNZ, doesn’t have a reason to raise the rates. Retail sales disappointed, and the quarterly inflation we’ve seen last week rose by 0.4% – very modest. So, the [...]
[...] Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 22:45 GMT. Consumers disappointed in the past three months. Sales grew less than expected, or fell more than expected. This important indicator hurt the kiwi. After a drop of 0.6% last month, a rise of 0.6% is predicted now. Also note core retail sales, which fell by 0.2% and are likely to rise by 0.6% now. We’ve seen a strong impact when retail sales fell two months ago. [...]