The New Zealand dollar lost the momentum and surrendered to the global slowdown. Will it recover now? The rate decision and especially the press conference that follows it are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
Big worries from Europe and weakness all over the world weighed on the kiwi. It did outperform some other currencies against the greenback, and still enjoys significant demand for agricultural goods, but this wasn’t enough to stay firm against the soaring US dollar.
NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Food price index: Monday, 22:45. Food prices gained 2% in July the largest monthly increase since October 2010 amid rises in tomato and green vegetable prices. The general rise in prices comes after the increase in GST from October last year.
- Rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. RBNZ decided to leave overnight rate at 2.50% although Mr. Alan Bollard suggested rates would go up again. However the central bank does not intend raising rates in the foreseen future due to inflationary concerns.
- RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank ofNew Zealand chose to maintain interest rate at the lowest level at 2.50% in order to keep recovery going after the earthquake inChristchurch. However exports have increased considerably exceeding imports creating a surplus indicating economic expansion.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The kiwi began the week with a small fall and was supported by the 0.8275 line (discussed last week). It later managed to climb, but it was hit badly on Friday and eventually closed the week significantly lower, at 0.8218.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start from a lower point this time. 0.8580, already played in both directions during July and capped an upwards move at the beginning of September.. 0.8505 is also a notable point which provided a temporary cushion for the pair. It is now weak resistance.
It is followed by 0.8410 – which was a stubborn line of resistance is already a stronger line. 0.8330 switches positions once again and is now minor resistance, or more of a pivotal line.
0.8275 has worked as support in August and in September, although its role is less important now. 0.8240 managed to hold the pair down, and was only temporarily breached.
0.8190 provided support in July and also in September, and is immediate support now. 0.8150, which prevented a deeper fall a few weeks ago, is a strong support line. A break below this line will be significant.
0.8190 also provided resistance in the past, but are now support. once again. This region provided a cushion after the recovery move.
Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and proved to be relevant once again as the swing low of the big fall. A drop below this line will open the road to 0.7875, followed by 0.7825.
The final frontier from now is the low point of May: 0.7755.
I turn bearish on NZD/USD.
After the turmoil, the US dollar might take a break, and this can allow the New Zealand dollar to consolidate. But on the other hand, the rate decision in New Zealand can be dovish, and the situation in Greece might turn worse.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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