GDP and Employment data are the major market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the events that will shape the price of the Canadian dollar, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Canada’s next budget will not include big new spending plans to avoid increase of deficits and raising taxes said Finance Minister Jim Flaherty last week as he began consultations ahead of the 2011-12 budget. The government will continue to focus on securing the recovery and returning to balanced budgets. Canadian economy is on the right track, but the global recovery is still fragile.
- Current Account: Monday, 13:30. Canada’s current account deficit widened by $2.6 billion to -$11.0 billion in the second quarter of 2010 mainly due to a sharp -$2.5 billion deterioration in the goods balance as well as in the services balance. Deficit is expected to widen further to 14.9B.
- Raw Materials Price Index: Monday, 13:30. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined 0.4 percent in September following 2.2% gain in the month before. The decline is largely because of significantly lower prices for mineral fuels while the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) increased 0.2% in September compared with August, led mainly by primary metal products. The RMPI Index has a strong impact on Canada’s commodities exports. 1.0% rise is expected in RMPI and IPPI is expected to remain 0.2%.
- Gross Domestic Product: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy grew 0.3 per cent in August following a 0.1 per cent drop in July, largely due to oil and gas extraction, wholesale trade and manufacturing in line with expectations. For next year, Bank of Canada predicts growth of 2.3 per cent, six-10ths of a point lower than previously projected, and it forecasts 2012 growth of 2.6 per cent. A smaller growth rate of 0.1% is expected now.
- Employment data: Friday, 12:00. Employment in Canada rose 3.0K in October after dropping 6.6K the month before while economists predicted 15.0K rise. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.9 percent from September’s reading of 8.0 percent. Full time employment jumped 47.2K while part time employment dropped 44.2K. It is worth noting that the participation rate scaled back to 67.2 in October, and provides reasoning for the decline in the unemployment rate. Employment Change is expected 17.9K rise this month and unemployment rate is likely to remain 7.9%.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis:
USD/CAD tested 1.0265 at the beginning of the week, but then quickly fell to 1.0070, After failing to break lower towards parity, it bounced and closed at 1.0207.
Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The pair is now in a range between 1.0265 and 1.0070, which provided support in the past week and also in October.
USD/CAD parity is the obvious support line below. It’s closely followed by 0.9975 which cushioned the pair’s fall in the past two months, and by the year-to-date low of 0.9930.
Looking up, 1.0265 was a very strong resistance line recently and is the immediate cap. Above, the 1.0380 line is a very strong resistance line after stopping USD/CAD from rising several times in recent months, and is still far.
Higher, 1.05 capped the pair twice during the summer and is the next significant resistance line. Above, the strong 1.0680 worked as resistance in July and in August, for more than one day in each attempt to break higher.
Even higher, the next levels are still far – 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit of a long-term range in 2009. Even higher on the upside, 1.0850, which was also a swing high in May.
I remain bearish on USD/CAD.
The Canadian dollar weathered the storm in Europe quite well, and continues enjoying good fundamentals. This week’s important figures, especially jobs, could provide the loonie a nice push.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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