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ADP showed a low gain of only 130K in October. This is the lowest since May. It was expected to show a gain of 151K jobs in the private sector during the month of October. This is lower than the original publication for September, a gain of 166K jobs. This was now revised down to 145K. The number for October also reflects the uncertainty due to the government shutdown.

Before the publication, EUR/USD traded above the lows, at 1.3756. GBP/USD was around 1.6060 and USD/JPY traded around 98.20. The dollar is now weaker in the initial response.  EUR/USD climbed to 1.3776. USD/JPY fell to 98.10. Moves are quite limited.

The ADP report is of higher importance now, as the official Non-Farm Payrolls report for October was postponed to November 8th. It was originally scheduled for November 1st, but the government shutdown took its toll. The belated NFP for September was disappointing.

The next NFP could go negative: if the private sector only shows a gain of 130K and the government is expected to drain jobs due to the shutdown, a fall in US jobs cannot be ruled out.

Next up, the US publishes the CPI figures for September. These were also delayed. The biggest event of the day is the Fed decision. No change is expected.

See:  Fed in focus