The US private sector gained only 38K jobs in May, according to ADP. This falls short of early expectations for a gain 177K jobs. The “safe haven” currencies soar against the dollar: USD/JPY drops sharply and USD/CHF digs deeper into fresh all-time lows. Other currencies move more slowly. This is a bad sign for the official Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
This is a huge disappointment. EUR/USD is moving up as well, but is still far from the 1.4450 resistance line. GBP/USD is experiencing an even more limited move. But the low yielding, “less risky” currencies are moving sharply: USD/JPY lost 40 pips instantly, and is now at 80.90. USD/CHF is digging deeper into unchartered territory, currently at 0.8433.
Last month, 179K jobs were gained. This was weaker than 200K estimated. The dollar then fell across the board, including against the euro.
Despite that disappointment, the official Non-Farm Payrolls report was far better than expected, showing an astonishing gain of 244K jobs. So, ADP isn’t always the best indicator for the official number.
All in all, the world is slowing down. This was seen in weak Manufacturing PMI from Britain, as well as from China. Australia’s first quarter was horrible, with a big contraction of 1.2%. Also Germany, the powerhouse of the European Union, saw worrying signs in quite a few indicators: retail sales, factory orders and unemployment.
For more on EUR/USD, see the Euro to Dollar forecast.
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