Weak ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Send EUR/USD Higher

According to ADP, the number of jobs gained in the US private sector rose by only 179K. Early expectations stood on a gain of 200K. EUR/USD is moving higher, and is testing levels above the resistance line.

The past few month saw job gains of around 200K each time, and this significantly lower. EUR/USD now trades at 1.4890, a little bit above the 1.4882 resistance line. Is this a real break, or another false one? We’ll soon know. The move is currently quite limited. A run above the round number of 1.49 is necessary to open the road to 1.5020.

ADP’s figure is based on a wide array of data for the private sector, but doesn’t always fully predict the official outcome in the Non-Farm Payrolls. The government’s figure is calculated in a different way, and it also includes the public sector.

Nevertheless, this figure not only moves the markets, but also tends to predict the long term trend. A surprising rise of almost 247K in December (297K was originally reported) didn’t match the official figure for December, but marked the beginning of a few good months of nice job gains.

Earlier today, the main themes moving the Euro continued to hold EUR/USD in range. The growing fears of a Greek default, that begins with an extension of the EU / IMF loan, hurt the common currency, while estimates of more rate hikes than expected in 2011 push it upwards.

Tomorrow European rate decision isn’t expected to result in a rate hike, but Trichet can signal a move in June.

All in all, EUR/USD was trading in a range between 1.4775 to 1.4882 – the two lines that characterized its movement in the past week.

Levels above are 1.5020 and 1.5144. Below we find 1.47 and 1.4650. For more technical analysis and upcoming events, see the EUR/USD Forecast.

Another important indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls will be published later on: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The PMI for the manufacturing sector surprised and remained above 60 points. Also factory orders exceeded expectations, providing hope for a strong gain in the NFP.