AUD: 3 Bearish Factors Vs 3 Bullish Factors: What’s The

The Australian dollar was  hit but succeeded in bouncing from those levels. What’s next? The team at Nomura analyzes everything moving the Aussie:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Nomura FX Strategy Research outlines 3 AUD’s bearish factors  that are in play against other 3 bullish factors.

On the  bearish  side:  1)  Softer near-term growth momentum.  2)  Lower level of Australian-centric commodity prices such as iron ore.  3)  Lack of a positive monetary policy impulse.

On the  bullish  front:  1)  The synchronised global recovery.  2)  Australia’s improved balance of payments picture.  3)  Relative stability in the long end Australian-US real yield spread.

Strategy-wise,  Nomura recommends holding a bearish AUD bias on key crosses such as against the EUR and GBP.

EUR/AUD is trading circa 1.4745, and GBP/AUD circa 1.3760 as of writing.

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