AUD/USD Forecast April 22-26 – Weak economic outlook could spell trouble for Aussie

The RBA minutes from the April meeting were dovish, if not downright pessimistic. Bank officials said that the likelihood a rise in rates in the near-term was low. The bank also left the door open to a rate cut if inflation did not improve and unemployment moved higher.   The Aussie received some support from Chinese GDP, which remained steady at 6.4%, above the estimate of 6.3%.

In the U.S., consumer spending rebounded in March, after posting declines in February. Retail sales jumped 1.6%, above the estimate of 0.9%. Core retail sales gained 1.2%, beating the forecast of 0.7%. As well, unemployment claims sparkled with a reading of 199 thousand. This was only the second reading below the 200-K level in 2019.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 14:30. The Conference Board indicator posted a slight gain of 0.3% in January, pointing to limited economic growth. Will we see an improvement in the February reading?
2. CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation. In Q4, the indicator improved to 0.5%, but the markets are braced for a downturn in Q1 of 2019, with an estimate of 0.2%.
3. PPl: Friday, 1:30. The producer price index is also released each quarter, magnifying its impact. In the fourth quarter, the indicator slowed to 0.5%, shy of the estimate of 0.6%. PPI is forecast to slow to 0.4% in Q1.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7480. This marked the high point of the pair in mid-July and defends the round 0.75 level.

The round number of 0.74 was the high point reached at the wake of December. This is followed by 0.7340, which the pair breached in late November.

0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September. Further down, 0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October.

0.7190 (mentioned  last week) remains relevant and was tested during the week.

Lower, 0.7165 was a swing low after a recovery in mid-November. 0.7085 was a low point in September.

Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017.

Below, 0.6825 supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

0.6744 was a low point in January.

0.6686 was an important cap back in January 2000. It is the final support line for now.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD

The Australian economy has been damaged by the U.S.-China trade war, in particular, the slowdown in the Chinese economy.  The rate-futures market have priced in that the next move by the RBA will be a cut, which means that the Aussie will be not all that attractive to investors.

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Further reading

• EUR/USD forecast  – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast  – Pound/dollar predictions
• USD/JPY forecast  – projections for dollar/yen
• USD/CAD forecast  – Canadian dollar analysis
• Forex weekly forecast  – Outlook for the major events of the week.

Safe trading!