AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 27-31 – Political storms on both sides of the Pacific


The Australian dollar rocked and rolled on Australia’s change at the helm, with Morrison taking over. And also at Trump’s action. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australia was rocked by political turmoil. After a turbulent week, Scott Morrison ousted Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister. Fears of the ascent of Peter Dutton weighed on the Aussie. In the US, Trump’s former confidant Michael Cohen, turned against him. In addition, Trump criticized the Fed for raising rates. The FOMC Minutes clarified that the Fed will raise rates in September but Powell’s speech already had a different tune. Powell does not see an overheating economy nor accelerating inflation. The AUD/USD recovered as the week drew to an end.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. Capital expenditure, or capex, is key to medium-term and long-term growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia watches this figure closely. Capex increased by 0.6% in Q1 2018. The data for Q2 feeds into GDP growth numbers.
  2. Building Approvals: Thursday, 1:30. This volatile housing figure dropped by 1.9% back in June. It could bounce back in July.
  3. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. Growing credit to households and businesses implies expanded economic activity. Credit expanded by 0.3% in June. A similar figure could be seen now.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Aussie/USD made sharp moves up and down, eventually recapturing the 0.73 handle.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.7560 is the next level to watch after it was the recovery level in early May. 0.7520 was a swing low in late May.

0.7480 capped the pair in mid-July and defends the round 0.75 level. 0.7420 capped the pair twice in mid-July. 0.7360 was a low point in mid-July.

0.7310 is the low of July 2018. 0.7240 was a swing low in late August and serves as a support.

The round number of 0.7200 is the 2018 low. The last line to watch is 0.7160 that was the swing low in early 2017.

I am neutral on AUD/USD

With the political issues finally resolved, the Australian dollar can recover. However, trade concerns could weigh on the  Aussie, a risk currency.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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