- ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This employment indicator has failed to post a gain since October. The decline in May was particularly sharp, with a reading of -8.4%.
- NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business confidence surged in May to 7 points. This was the highest reading since July.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 0:30. This indicator should be treated as a market-mover, as stronger consumer confidence can translate into an increase in consumer spending. Consumer sentiment fell 0.6% in June, marking the first decline in three months. Will we see a rebound in the July release?
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This is a useful inflation gauge, as inflation expectations often translate into actual inflation numbers. The indicator has recorded two straight gains of 3.3%, pointing to solid inflation levels.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start at 0.7340, which has held in resistance since early December.
0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September.
0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October.
0.7165 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since early April.
0.7085 was a low point in September.
0.7022 is under pressure as AUD/USD touched a high of 0.7021 last week.
0.6988 remained relevant last week. It marked the low point in April.
0.6940 has held in support since late June.
0.6864 was a low point in May.
0.6744 was a low point in January.
0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.
0.6547 was an important resistance line back in December 2008.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD
With the RBA lowering rates by 0.50% in just four weeks, it’s clear that the bank is very concerned about the health of the Australian economy. Investors could react by selling their Australian-dollar assets and seeking safer assets. With most economists expecting a third rate cut later in 2019, the Aussie will have a tough time keeping pace with the U.S. dollar.
- EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
- USD/JPY forecast – projections for dollar/yen
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar analysis
- Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.