AUD/USD Forecast July 8-12 – Aussie dips as RBA strikes again

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AUD/USD reversed directions last week, posting moderate losses. There are just four events this week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The RBA lowered interest rates for a second straight month, the first back-to-back cuts since 2012. The benchmark rate currently stands at an even 1.0%, a historical low. In follow-up comments, RBA Governor Lowe said that the economic outlook “remains reasonable”, but investors will no doubt be concerned at the hyper-activity of the RBA. Elsewhere, Building approvals rebounded after two consecutive declines, posting a gain of 0.1%. Retail sales improved to 0.1%, but this fell short of the forecast of 0.2%.
In the U.S., the services sector PMI continues to indicate expansion, but slowed in May. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, slowing to 55.1, down from 56.9 a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 56.1. Key employment numbers were a mix in June. Wage growth remained stuck at 0.2% for a third successive month. Nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a strong gain of 224 thousand, crushing the estimate of 162 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, above the estimate of 3.6%.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This employment indicator has failed to post a gain since October. The decline in May was particularly sharp, with a reading of -8.4%.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business confidence surged in May to 7 points. This was the highest reading since July.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 0:30. This indicator should be treated as a market-mover, as stronger consumer confidence can translate into an increase in consumer spending. Consumer sentiment fell 0.6% in June, marking the first decline in three months. Will we see a rebound in the July release?
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This is a useful inflation gauge, as inflation expectations often translate into actual inflation numbers. The indicator has recorded two straight gains of 3.3%, pointing to solid inflation levels.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start at 0.7340, which has held in resistance since early December.

0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September.

0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October.

0.7165 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since early April.

0.7085 was a low point in September.

0.7022 is under pressure as AUD/USD touched a high of 0.7021 last week.

0.6988 remained relevant last week. It marked the low point in April.

0.6940 has held in support since late June.

0.6864 was a low point in May.

0.6744 was a low point in January.

0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.

0.6547 was an important resistance line back in December 2008.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD

With the RBA lowering rates by 0.50% in just four weeks, it’s clear that the bank is very concerned about the health of the Australian economy. Investors could react by selling their Australian-dollar assets and seeking safer assets. With most economists expecting a third rate cut later in 2019, the Aussie will have a tough time keeping pace with the U.S. dollar.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.