AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 16-20 – Aussie levels off after huge election gains

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AUD/USD showed slight gains last week. The upcoming week has six events, including employment reports and retail sales. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, there were no tier-1 events last week. National Australia Bank Confidence improved to 5, after, three straight declines. Westpac Consumer Sentiment slowed to 2.5%, down from 11.9%.

In the US, consumer inflation softened, as the headline and core readings both fell to 0.0%, down from 0.2% beforehand. There was positive news on the employment front, as unemployment claims fell to 709 thousand, down from 751 thousand in the previous release. The week wrapped up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which fell from 81.2 to 77.0, its lowest level in three months.

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AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 15:30. The Conference Board index is based on 7 economic indicators. The index posted a gain of 0.8% in August. Will we see another gain in September?
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The RBA minutes will provide details of the RBA meeting earlier in November. At the meeting, policymakers held rates at 0.10%, a record low.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The Melbourne Institute indicator slowed to 0.2% in September, down from 0.5% beforehand. Will we see a rebound in October?
  4. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This index is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. In Q3, the index slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.5%. 
  5. Employment Report: Thursday, 23:30. The economy shed 29.5 thousand jobs in September, after three months of sharp gains. Another loss is expected in October, with an estimate of -30.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.1%, up from 6.9%.
  6.  Retail Sales: Friday, 00:30. Retail sales have been struggling, with four straight declines. In August, retail sales declined by 1.1%. We now await the September release.
  • All times are GMT

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7595.

0.7421 is an important monthly resistance line.

0.7332 is next.

0.7242 (mentioned last week) remains a weak support level.

0.7105 is next.

0.7008 is protecting the symbolic 0.7000 level. It is the final support level for now.

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I am neutral on AUD/USD

The Australian dollar enjoyed sharp gains during the US election, but it’s unclear if this upswing will continue, as weak global demand continues to weigh on Australia’s export sector.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.