AUD/USD Forecast November 18-22 – Aussie remains under pressure

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AUD/USD posted losses for a second straight week. This week’s key event is the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, confidence indicators pointed upwards. NAB Business Confidence climbed from zero to 2 pts, while Westpac Consumer Sentiment jumped 4.5%, after a decline of 4.5% a month earlier. However, employment numbers were weak. Employment change fell by 19.0, compared to an estimate of +16.2 thousand. The unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3%.

In the U.S., the focus was on consumer inflation and spending reports. CPI improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. This was the strongest monthly gain since March. The core reading ticked higher to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. This matched the estimate. Retail sales reports were mixed. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 0.3%, up from -0.3% a month earlier. This beat the estimate of 0.1%. The core reading improved to 0.2%, up from -0.1%. However, it missed the forecast of 0.3%.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 15:30. This index is based on 7 economic indicators. In September, the index posted a small gain of 0.2%. We will now receive the October data.
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 0:30. The minutes will provide details of the RBA policy meeting earlier in November, when the RBA maintained rates at 0.75%. The Australian economy is weak and investors will be looking for hints regarding further rate cuts.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This Melbourne Institute indicator has struggled, with only one gain in the past six months. Will we see a gain in the October release?

*All times are GMT

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7240.

0.7165 has held firm since early April.

0.7085 has held since July. 0.7022 is next.

0.6988 is protecting the symbolic 70 level.

0.6865 (mentioned last week) is next.

0.6744 is providing support.

0.6686 was tested in early October.

0.6627 has held in support since March 2009.

0.6532 is the final support level for now.

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I remain neutral on AUD/USD

Recent interest cuts have failed to boost the Australian economy. However, if a trade deal is reached between the U.S. and China, risk appetite would climb, which would be bullish for minor currencies like the Aussie.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.