Home AUD/USD Forecast November 18-22 – Aussie remains under pressure
AUD/USD Forecast, Minors, Weekly Forex Forecasts

AUD/USD Forecast November 18-22 – Aussie remains under pressure

Kenny Fisher
Updated:

AUD/USD posted losses for a second straight week. This week’s key event is the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, confidence indicators pointed upwards. NAB Business Confidence climbed from zero to 2 pts, while Westpac Consumer Sentiment jumped 4.5%, after a decline of 4.5% a month earlier. However, employment numbers were weak. Employment change fell by 19.0, compared to an estimate of +16.2 thousand. The unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3%.

In the U.S., the focus was on consumer inflation and spending reports. CPI improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. This was the strongest monthly gain since March. The core reading ticked higher to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. This matched the estimate. Retail sales reports were mixed. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 0.3%, up from -0.3% a month earlier. This beat the estimate of 0.1%. The core reading improved to 0.2%, up from -0.1%. However, it missed the forecast of 0.3%.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 15:30. This index is based on 7 economic indicators. In September, the index posted a small gain of 0.2%. We will now receive the October data.
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 0:30. The minutes will provide details of the RBA policy meeting earlier in November, when the RBA maintained rates at 0.75%. The Australian economy is weak and investors will be looking for hints regarding further rate cuts.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This Melbourne Institute indicator has struggled, with only one gain in the past six months. Will we see a gain in the October release?

*All times are GMT

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7240.

0.7165 has held firm since early April.

0.7085 has held since July. 0.7022 is next.

0.6988 is protecting the symbolic 70 level.

0.6865 (mentioned  last week) is next.

0.6744 is providing support.

0.6686 was tested in early October.

0.6627 has held in support since March 2009.

0.6532 is the final support level for now.

.

I remain neutral on AUD/USD

Recent interest cuts have failed to boost the Australian economy. However, if a trade deal is reached between the U.S. and China, risk appetite would climb, which would be bullish for minor currencies like the Aussie.

Follow us on  Sticher  or  iTunes

Further reading:

Safe trading!

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

WARNING: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice and we are not authorised to provide investment advice. Nothing on this website is an endorsement or recommendation of a particular trading strategy or investment decision.  The information on this website is general in nature, so you must consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. Investing is speculative. When investing your capital is at risk. This site is not intended for use in jurisdictions in which the trading or investments described are prohibited and should only be used by such persons and in such ways as are legally permitted. Your investment may not qualify for investor protection in your country or state of residence, so please conduct your own due diligence or obtain advice where necessary. Crypto promotions on this site do not comply with the UK Financial Promotions Regime and is not intended for UK consumers. This website is free for you to use but we may receive a commission from the companies we feature on this site.

© forexcrunch.com All Rights Reserved 2017 – 2024