AUD/USD Forecast October 22-26 – No reasons to rise


The Australian dollar was hit by an unimpressive job report and disappointing Chinese GDP. What’s next? Apart from rising and falling with the woes of stock markets, speeches by several RBA officials will rock the Aussie. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australia gained only 5.6K positions in September, worse than had been expected. And while the unemployment rate fell to 5%, it was only thanks to a slide in the participation rate. China, Australia’s No. 1 trading partner, grew at an annualized rate of 6.5%, also below expectations, and raising concerns for the broader global economy. The Australian Dollar ended the weak on the slightly lower ground but never went too far.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Guy Debelle talks: Monday, 2:00, Monday, 22:35, and Tuesday, 4;30. The RBA Assistant Governor will speak in two separate events in Sydney. He will have the opportunity to react to the slowdown in jobs, the slowdown in Sydney’s house prices, and the slowdown in China’s economy. Will he hint about a rate cut? The central bank did not change the interest rate for over two years.
  2. CB Leading Index: Monday, 14:30. The Conference Board’s composite index is comprised of seven separate economic gauges. It advanced by only 0.1% in July and we could see a similar figure in August.
  3. Michele Bullock talks: Tuesday, 4:30. The RBA Assistant Governor for Financial Markets will also speak in Sydney. She will a speech at the at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association Annual Australia Conference, in Sydney and may also refer to the recent economic developments.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Aussie/USD traded around the 0.7150 level (mentioned last week) but could not conquer it.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.7480 capped the pair in mid-July and defends the round 0.75 level. 0.7420 capped the pair twice in mid-July. 0.7360 was a low point in mid-July.

0.7310 is the low of July 2018. 0.7240 was a swing low in late August and the pair attempted to reach it in mid-September.

The round number of 0.7200 was a temporary low. 0.7150 was a stepping stone on the way down in early September. 0.7040 was the low point in mid-October and the last defense before the round number of 0.70.

The round number of 0.70 is closely watched by many market participants. Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017. Below, the only noteworthy level is only 0.6825 that supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD

Weakness in Australia and in China as well as the hawkishness of the Fed will likely weigh on the pair for another week.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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