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AUD/USD recorded sharp losses last week, with a decline of 1.7%. It was the Aussie’s worst week since mid-July. There are only two events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers have left the door open to further rate cuts if needed. This could mean another 1/4 point cut in October or November. Australia created a respectable 34.7 thousand jobs in August, but investors chose to focus on the unemployment rate, which rose unexpectedly to 5.3%, up from 5.2% in the previous release.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points for the second time in two months. Lower rates usually means a dovish message from the Fed but this time the Fed sounded cautiously optimistic. The Fed chair stated that domestic economic conditions were “favorable” and that the rate cut was an insurance policy in case economic conditions worsened.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. Flash Manufacturing PMI: Sunday, 23:00. The index continues to post readings just over the 51-level, which points to stagnation. The August release came in at 51.3 and little change is expected in the September reading.
  2. Flash Services PMI: Sunday, 23:00. The services PMI slipped to 49.2 in August, the first time the index has been in contraction territory since May. This soft reading points to weakness in the business sector. Will we see any improvement in September?

*All times are GMT

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at  0.7165. This line has held firm since early April.

0.7085 was a low point in September. 0.7022 is next.

0.6988 marked the low point in April.

0.6865 has some breathing room in resistance, with AUD/USD recording sharp losses this week.

0.6825 (mentioned  last week) has some breathing room, following losses by AUD/USD last week.

0.6744 is under pressure in support.

0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.

0.6627 has held in support since March 2009. 0.6532 is next.

0.6456 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on AUD/USD

The Australian dollar sagged last week and could find it difficult to rebound. Tensions in the Persian Gulf have escalated, which is weighing on risk appetite. On the domestic front, Australian numbers have been lukewarm, and the RBA could resume its rate trimming before the end of 2019.

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