AUD/USD Outlook – November 16-20

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Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: AUD/USD Forecast

The Australian dollar continued to push forward this week, riding on good employment figures. This week’s meeting minutes from the RBA will supply hints for the next move by the RBA. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Australia, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

AUD USD Forecast

Apart from the meeting minutes, note the Wage Price Index, which might show inflationary pressures, something that is more directly correlated with rate hikes than the number of employees. Which country will be the next to raise rates? Australia is currently alone. Let’s review the events:

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the recent rate decision, Glenn Stevens’ RBA raised the Australian interest rate for the second time, up to 3.5%. We now get to see what the policymakers were talking about, and especially see the prospects for December’s rate decision. Currently economists are split about the expectations for the next move: another rise or a pause? The expectations move the Aussie. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.
  2. Guy Debelle talks: We might get more hints from Guy Debelle, which is the RBA Assistant Governor. He’ll be talking in two events: on Tuesday at 10:05 GMT and on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. Both events take place in Sydney.
  3. MI Leading Index: The Melbourne Institute publishes this composite index on Wednesday at midnight. Most of the 9 pieces of this index have already been published, but the bottom line number still has an impact on the Aussie. This index rose nicely, by 1.1%, in the past two months, and is expected to continue doing so this time as well.
  4. Wage Price Index: This is an important inflation indicator – it’s published once a quarter and looks at salaries. The RBA takes this into consideration when making the rate decision. In the past two quarters of this year, the index rose by 0.8%, and in the third quarter it’s predicted to rise by 0.7%. Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
  5. RBA Monthly Bulletin: The last release from the RBA this week is a collection of economic data that the RBA sees on its desk. It can contain thoughts about inflation. Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a steady rise reaching the year-to-date highs of 0.9326. It then broke the resistance line on the employment figures, and pushed up to 0.9368, before giving in to some dollar strength. It recovered quickly and made the highest close this year – 0.9328.

I still mark 0.9326 as minor support line, since the Aussie closed around it. I’ve modified some of the lines since last week’s AUD/USD outlook. Looking down, 0.9110 is a minor support line. In recent weeks, it served as a minor support line, and later as a minor resistance line.

Further down, 0.8950 is already a major support line, a place where the Aussie made a break under last week, and previously bounced off it. Looking even lower, the area of 0.85 is another major support line. The Aussie was stuck under it during the summer.

Looking up above 0.9326, the next resistance line is 0.95. It was a major resistance line in 2008, and is also a round number. Even higher, 0.9650 was a resistance line at the beginning of 2008, before the Aussie made an attempt to reach parity with the dollar.

My sentiment remain bullish on the Aussie.

The recent employment figures and the continuing rise of the currency support this sentiment. I wonder if we’ll get hints for another rate hike this week.

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    Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.