- The AUD/USD pair is pulling back from an intraday high while remaining at a 6-week high.
- Mixed news and a busy calendar are depressing market sentiment.
- Prime Minister Morrison convenes an extraordinary cabinet meeting due to record cases in Australia.
The AUD/USD price analysis shows bullish behavior as the USD weakens with the fall in US yields. However, bulls seem to run out of steam. The US data, yields, and year-end inaction are all expected to point in a clear direction.
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During Thursday’s late Asian session, AUD/USD bulls took a breather around the previous day’s multi-day high and rebounded 0.10% to 0.7260.
Despite a weaker dollar the day before helping the Australian pair, fears over the South African equivalent of Covid, Omicron, are adding to geopolitical headlines and recent pressures on the stock.
Despite 90 percent approval of vaccinations, Australia reports a record number of daily COVID infections, no later than 19,677. Despite a previous announcement that it would ease restrictions on activities across state lines, the largest company in the Pacific region is likely to revert to some of the lockdown measures during today’s extraordinary cabinet meeting.
“The Prime Minister says he will change programs, but his recovery has stalled,” Anthony Albanese told ABC News on the eve of the meeting. “We need some clarity from today’s discussion because there is so much uncertainty.”
According to Reuters, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, “The US is urging the authorities in China and Hong Kong to immediately free the workers.” Saudi King Salman bin Abdel Aziz expressed concern earlier that Iran was not cooperating with the international community.
As noted previously, the AUD/USD pair supported the US dollar’s dismal moves and worsened US data the previous day. In the wake of a disappointing response to a seven-year US Treasury bond auction during the holiday season, the dollar index (DXY) hit a one-month low on Wednesday. In terms of data, expected US home sales for November fell from + 0.5% to -2.2% m/m below projections, while the Good Trade Balance reached a record deficit of -97.8 billion US dollars versus -83 and $ 2 billion in October.
The US 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 1.55%, while S&P 500 futures see moderate losses at around 4,784.
Amid fears of new activity restrictions, AUD/USD traders await news from Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison of renewed momentum. If not, the offer could extend the last rally.
The US Weekly Jobless Claims Index and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for December, which expected 205,000 and 61.8, respectively, versus 205,000 and 61.8, respectively, will brighten the calendar. Risk catalysts will also be risk catalysts be key.
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AUD/USD price technical analysis: Uptrend channel to hold
The AUD/USD price does not look much promising to break the resistance and move further up as the widespread up bar with very high volume closed near the middle. Meanwhile, the minor up wave has a declining volume. Both factors show the technical exhaustion of bulls. However, the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart may support the pair. If the uptrend price channel is broken on either side, trading opportunities can be found.
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