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  • AUD/USD managed to post gains on Friday as the Dollar showed weakness.
  • Aussie failed to find traction as Fed’s weak policies are no more a point to worry for investors.
  • Australia’s CPI fell below expectations that weighed on the pair.

The weekly forecast for the AUD/USD pair is mildly bearish as there is no fundamental reason that supports Aussie at the moment.

For the third week in a row, the AUD/USD pair traded close to unchanged, around 0.7370, consolidating July losses. Over the past month, the pair has been in a narrow range between the annual lows of 0.7288 and 0.7426 and attempts to break the 0.7400 level quickly stopped.

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As Wall Street continues to hit record highs, the Australian Dollar has failed to attract investors. Traders do not seem to be worried about the Federal Reserve’s ultra-weak monetary policy. Obviously, they have an excellent reason for this. Senate passed a trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure bill this week after months of deliberation. Further, Congress prepared the basis for the adoption of a $ 3.5 trillion democratic budget. As a result, AUD/USD is not in danger of collapsing due to new inflows to US markets.

Australians, however, have little to celebrate. A large part of this is the government’s overconfidence in closing borders last year, which has caused the economy to lag behind major competitors. It was already too late for the authorities to join the vaccine train when they realized that this measure could not last forever. A global lockdown has resumed, and macroeconomic data continues to reflect a weak economy. Nevertheless, the hopes of the country are still alive as it catches up. Approximately 20% of Australia’s population is fully vaccinated at this point.

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As a result of the US’s July inflation report, expectations for a tightening temporarily waned. Based on the CPI, the base price shrank to 4.3% YoY, as expected. During the same period, IMF reported an unexpected increase in producer prices of 7.8%. Preliminary estimates indicate that the Dollar declined on Friday following a drop in the consumer sentiment index in Michigan to a nearly 10-year low of 70.2. In the last quarter of the year, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting back on lending.

Data from Australia were extremely disappointing as the NAB business confidence index fell from 11 to -8 in July, and Westpac’s consumer confidence index increased from 1.5% to -4.4% in August. Finally, consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.3% in August, while new home sales fell 20.5% mom in July, according to the HIA

America’s key events during Aug 16-20

Next week, there will be some great macro events. Retail sales in the US are set to decline by 0.2% m/m on Tuesday. In addition, the Federal Reserve minutes of its most recent meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Australia’s key events during Aug 16-20

Australia’s Reserve Bank will release its most recent meeting minutes, along with the country’s second-quarter wage index and employment data for July. In one month, the economy is expected to lose 45,000 jobs.

AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish cloud still hovering

AUD/USD weekly forecast - daily chart
AUD/USD weekly forecast – daily chart

The AUD/USD is consolidating for several days within a short price range. The pair managed to close above the 20-day SMA on Friday. However, the death crossover of 200-day and 50-day SMAs continues to pressure the price fall. The 100-day SMA is also pointing downwards and may act as a strong resistance. Despite the broad Dollar weakness, we can see the resumption of a downtrend in the Aussie as the pair has no follow-through momentum to continue the bullish momentum.

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