AUD/USD Forecast – December 21-25

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: AUD/USD Forecast

The Aussie had a bad week, suffering from a very  disappointing GDP release, and losing a major support line. The outlook this week focuses on the technical analysis for AUD/USD, as the short Christmas week doesn’t provide too many indicators.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Apart from the small growth in GDP, the meeting minutes that followed the third consecutive rate hike hinted that the next won’t be very soon. Let’s start:

1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. For Australia, this figure is of importance and can move the currency. Sales of new autos have grown in the past 3 months, with an accelerated growth rate of 3.7% last month.
2. CB Leading Index: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT. Although many of this indicator components have already been released, this figure has an impact and is often revised afterwards. In the past four months, this index posted gains, but the pace has slowed down recently. There’s is a doubt if a rise will be reported this time as well.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a dip under the minor 0.9090 support line, and continued with a total collapse – it lost the 0.8950 support, which was a huge support and resistance line many times in recent months.

So now, 0.8950 turns into a resistance line, as it did in the summer. Further above, 0.9090 is a minor resistance line, and so is 0.9210. Both served as support and resistance line recently, but they are now very weak.

Further above, 0.9327 is already a major resistance line. It served as such 3 times during October and November.

Looking down, I’ve added more lines on last week’s outlook. The nearest support is at 0.8800. This is where the Aussie stopped this week, and it also stopped at this line in September.

Further down, the area of 0.85 provides very strong support. 0.8477 stopped the Aussie several times on its way up. After it broke above this line, 0.8536 was where it bottomed out.

I became neutral on AUD/USD.

Although Australian employment is doing really great, the bulls where stopped by the bad GDP and the greenback’s huge strength. Australia’s strength is enough for not falling further, but not for making gains.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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