AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

AUD/USD enjoyed its best week since March, as the pair climbed over 100 points. AUD/USD  closed just under the 0.82 line. This week’s highlight is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, employment data was solid, as Nonfarm Payrolls was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6%. In Australia Building Approvals and Trade Balance looked sharp, but Retail Sales softened and missed expectations.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This release is an important gauge of the demand for new workers. In November, the indicator posted a strong gain of 0.7%.
2. Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. Home Loans posted a gain of 0.3% in November, following two consecutive declines. The markets are anticipating a very strong reading for December, with the estimate standing at 1.8%.
3. Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. This is one of the most important economic indicators and traders should treat it as a market-mover. The indicator was red-hot in November, showing a gain of 42.7 thousand. This crushed the estimate of 15.2 thousand. The markets are expecting a modest gain of 5.3 thousand in December. Australia’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8067 and dropped to a low of 0.8032, as support held firm at 0.8013 (discussed last week). The pair rose sharply late in the week, touching a high of 0.8208. The pair closed at 0.8190.

Live chart of AUD/USD:

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Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.8660 has held firm since late November. 0.8550 is next.

0.8466 switched to a resistance role in the first week of December and remains a strong line as the pair trades close to the 0.82 line.

0.8312 is the next line of resistance. It has held firm since mid-December.

0.8150 continues to see action. The line has switched to a support role following strong gains by the  Aussie.

0.8013  held firm as the pair  dipped lower early in the week.  This line is the last barrier in front of the psychologically critical 0.80 level.

0.7978 was an important cap in January 2007.

0.7904 has provided support since July 2009.

0.7799 is the  final support level for now. This line has remained intact since September 2008.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie posted strong gains last week, but this could be a temporary reprieve as  the  US economy continues to  outperform that of Australia. As well, the RBA  wants to see the Australian trade closer  to the  US 75 cents level.  The US economy continues to look solid, and an expected rate hike is good news for the US dollar.