AUD/USD Forecast March 10-14

AUD/USD  had an excellent week, posting gains of about 160 points.  The pair  closed at 0.9060.  The highlights this week are the NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie got some help from excellent Australian releases last week, including Building Permits and GDP. In the US, employment numbers looked  solid, as Unemployment Claims  and  Nonfarm Payrolls  impressed.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUDUSD Forecast Mar. 10-14

  1. Chinese CPI: Sunday, 1:30.  Key Chinese releases can have a major impact on AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The indicator has been losing ground, the last two releases coming in at 2.5%. Another drop is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 2.0%.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence is a key indicator which can affect the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator has been moving up and rose to  8 points in the January release. The markets are hoping that the upswing continues in the February release.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. This is an important indicator as an increase in consumer sentiment usually translates into stronger consumer spending, a key ingredient of economic growth. The indicator has been mired in a nasty slump, posting  four declines in the past five releases.
  4. Home Loans: Wednesday, 00:30. Home Loans is an important gauge of the housing industry as well as consumer spending, as a home is likely the biggest purchase made by a consumer. The indicator disappointed the markets with a decline of 1.9% last month, well below the estimate of +0.5%. The markets are expecting a nice turnaround in February, with the estimate standing at +0.8%.
  5.  MI Inflation Expectations:  Thursday, 00:00. The indicator has been very steady, with the past two indicators posting a gain of 2.3%. Higher inflation is bullish for the Australian dollar, so a strong release could bolster the currency.
  6. Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. Employment Change is the highlight of the week, and one of the most important economic indicators. The indicator has looked weak, posting two straight declines. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with an estimate of 15.3 thousand for February. If the indicator falls short of the  estimate, the Aussie could take a hit. The Unemployment Rate, which currently stands at 6.0%,  is  expected to remain at its current level in the February release.
  7. Chinese Industrial Production: Thursday, 5:30. Although the indicator continues to post very strong gains, the readings have been dropping, with the January release coming in at 9.7%, a five-month low. The downward trend is expected to continue, with a February estimate of 9.5%.

*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8903 and  slipped to a low of 0.8891, breaking just below support at 0.8891 (discussed last week). The pair then  climbed all the way to 0.9133, before retracting and closing the week at 0.9060.


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  begin with  resistance at  0.9442. This marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line. This is followed by resistance at  0.9368, which was an important line in mid-November.

Next, there is resistance at 0.9283. This line  saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady resistance since November.

0.9180  follows.  It is followed by the round number of 0.9000, which was easily breached as the Aussie broke above the 0.91 line. This key line has switched back to a support line to start the week.

0.8893  is the next support line. It saw action early in the week as the pair broke  below it  before reversing directions and going  on an upward tear.

0.8728 marks the low point of an Aussie  rally which began in early February and pushed above the 0.90 level.

This is followed by 0.8578, which has remained intact since  July 2010.

The final  support level for now is  0.8432, which  played a key support role in late 2009.


I am  bearish on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar looked sharp last week, but will it manage to stay above the 0.90 level? The US posted strong employment numbers on Friday, and the resulting positive market sentiment  could give the greenback a lift early in the week. Australian employment numbers have run into trouble, and a weak Employment Change release could send the Aussie reeling.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.