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AUD/USD  settled down this week, showing little change as it closed just above the 0.90 level.  There are just five events on this week’s schedule. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian Employment Change surprised with a very strong reading, but the Aussie  failed to  take advantage. In the US, retail sales numbers met expectations, while Unemployment Claims dropped to a three-month low.


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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     AUDUSD Forecast Mar. 17-21

  1. New Motor Vehicles Sales: Monday, 00:30.  This indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as motor vehicles are big-ticket items. The indicator disappointed in January, declining by 3.5%, its worst showing in six months. The markets will be hoping for a positive turnaround in the upcoming release.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the highlight event of the week. The minutes provide details of the RBA’s most recent policy meeting, and any unexpected comments or views from the RBA policymakers could affect the movement of AUD/USD.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The MI Leading Index is based on 9 composite economic indicators, but is a minor event since most of the data has been previously released. The index continues to post weak readings, and came in at -0.2% last month.
  4. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 00:30. The RBA Bulletin is published on a  quarterly basis, and contains the  Bank’s  view of current and future economic conditions.  It is unlikely to have much impact on the Aussie, since much of the information has already been released.
  5. CB Leading Index: Thursday, 23:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators.  The indicator surprised the markets in  January with a strong gain of 0.8%, its best showing in almost 2  years. Will  we see another sharp gain in the February release?


*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9056 and  dropped to a low of 0.8924,  a support at 0.8893 held firm  (discussed last week). The pair then  reversed directions, breaking above the 0.91 line as it touched a high of 0.9104. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9020.


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  start with  resistance at  0.9442. This marked the high point of  the  pair in November, which saw the Aussie  go on a sharp slide and drop below the  0.89  line. This is followed by resistance at  0.9368, which was an important line in mid-November.

Next, there is resistance at 0.9283. This line  saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady resistance since November.

0.9180  follows. This is an important line, which has remained firm since late November.

We find support for the pair at 0.9000, which was  breached as the pair dropped back into 0.89 territory. This key line is providing weak support and could see action early in the week.

0.8893  is the next support line. It held firm as the pair dropped close to the 0.89  line before recovering.

0.8728 marks the low point of an Aussie  rally which began in early February and pushed above the 0.90 level.

This is followed by 0.8578, which has remained intact since  July 2010.

The final  support level for now is  0.8432, which  played a key support role in late 2009.


I am  bearish on AUD/USD.

The wobbly Australian dollar finds itself above the key 0.90 level, but just barely. The US Federal Reserve is expected to trim QE for the third time next week, and this vote of confidence in the US economy could give a lift to the US dollar. The RBA minutes are likely to state that the Aussie is overvalued, and this could weigh on the currency.