AUD/USD Forecast – March 21-25

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After partially recovering from a big fall, the Australian dollar faces a light week, but this doesn’t mean it won’t rock. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now under parity.

The earthquake in Japan is also felt in Australia. Fears of weaker global growth have sent the Aussie down, but it managed to recover after the massive yen intervention. Which direction will it chose?

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

AUD to USD Chart March 21-25

  1. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 23:00. The Conference Board has a formula based on 7 indicators. While some of them have been released, the publication still is of importance. After a strong rise of 0.7% last month, a very small rise is likely now.
  2. RBA Financial Stability Review: Thursday, 00:30. This gauge of Australia’s financial system is published only twice a year, making it important. A good report is expected, despite the worries of a housing bubble in Australia.
  3. Malcolm Edey talks: Friday, 2:15. The RBA Assistant Governor, Dr. Edey, hasn’t spoke in quite a long time. In his previous public appearances, Edey has managed to shake the Aussie. He’ll now speak in Sydney and may comment on monetary policy, an issue which the currency is sensitive to.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After a short struggle around the 1.0180 line (discussed last week), AUD/USD made a sharp fall and even reached below the 0.9724 line. It then recovered, but closed at 0.9937, significantly under parity.

Looking up, immediate and very near support appears at 0.9940. This acts as a pivotal line for the beginning of the week. It’s also closely followed by the obvious line of parity, which has a lesser significance than in previous weeks, but is still important.

Higher, 1.0080 proved to be a distinctive line, and now turns from support to resistance. It was the lower band of a range in November, and has worked also more recently. 1.0180 is a very tough line, that proved its strength a few weeks ago. It first capped the pair in November.

The ultimate line is the  floating era peak of 1.0254, a line reached only in the days of thin trading in December 2010. Beyond this line we find uncharted territory.

Looking down, initial support is found only at 0.98, previously the lowest level in 2011, but this was temporarily breached now – very temporarily. It’s followed by 0.9724, which provided support back in November, and proved its strength now as well.

Lower, 0.9660 worked in both directions, and especially as a cushion back in October. A breach o 0.9724 will find the pair checking out this line. Another strong line of support is at 0.9540, the lowest level since September. which was a double bottom.

More lines can be addressed lower, after the recent falls. 0.9463 was a stepping stone on the way up, and provides minor support. 0.9327 is a veteran line of resistance which will be tested as support upon a major fall.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

The surprising and very dovish comments of RBA governor Glenn Stevens undermine one of the Aussie’s key assets – a high interest rate. Together with horrible Japanese earthquake and its consequences, they balance the overall strength of the Australian economy, boosted by high Chinese demand.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

4 Comments

  1. Preliminary Chinese manufacturing pmi from HSBC are due on Tuesday. That can be the most significant data for the aussie alongside what happens in Japan and Libya. If the Chinese economy shows signs of weakening the aussie will fall like a stone.

  2. Thanks for your comment. I think that this is a rather second-tier Chinese figure that has a small impact on the Aussie. Have you seen the Aussie rock from this event in the past? Is it worth following?

  3. that event is new, first published in February 2011. As Chinese PMI is important this indicator is important as well. Think about European preliminary pmi: more important than the final release, right?

  4. I have to agree with you: HSBC PMI figures are more second tier than the official figures. The reason why is because official figures come out first. Just like what we see at German pmi and european pmi. German pmi is more important because when european pmi comes out everybody knows what to expect. Same with official figures and HSBC figures: both report on the same thing. Preliminary HSBC figures show the first signs of how China did in the previous month and give clues on the official figures. That’s why it is important to follow them.