AUD/USD Forecast October 15-19

After last week’s sharp drop, the AUD/USD enjoyed a quiet week, as the pair  moved up slightly, closing the week at  1.0230. The upcoming week has seven events. Here is an outlook of the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Positive  Australian employment numbers and a surprisingly strong Chinese GDP helped the aussie make a push towards 1.03, but the pair  coughed up most of these gains by the end of the trading week.

Updates: The RBA released its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The Central Bank hinted at another rate cut next month, after citing continuing weak commodity prices. AUD/USD continues to move upwards, as the pair was trading at 1.0283. MI Leading Index will be released later on Tuesday. MI Leading Index was up a notch, rising to 0.5%. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence disappointing, as it remained unchanged at -2 points. Chinese GDP was down slightly to 7.4%, but this matched the market estimate. The aussie remains choppy, as the rally by AUD/USD has taken a breather. The pair was trading at 1.0381.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

  1. Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. After disappointing numbers in August, the markets are expecting better numbers for September, with a forecast of 1.4%.
  2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 00:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales jumped 3.6% in the September reading, and the markets will be hoping for another strong release this month.
  3. Chinese CPI: Monday, 1:30. The inflation index rose 2.0% in the previous release, and the markets are expecting a similar reading in October.
  4. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The Policy Minutes are released each month, and analysts will be combing through them after the RBA surprised the markets with its recent cut in interest rates.
  5. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The composite index has been dropping over the past two months. Will the index rebound in the October release?
  6. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Thursday, 00:30. The business indicator disappointed in the previous reading, as it dropped to -2 points. The markets will be hoping for an improvement this month.
  7. Chinese GDP: Thursday, 2:00. Chinese GDP continues to drop, and another decline is forecast for the October release, with an estimate of 7.4%. Traders should pay close attention to this indicator, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner.

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0171. The pair touched a  low of 1.0149, but then rebounded, climbing all the way to 1.0293. AUD/USD closed the week at the resistance line of 1.0230  (discussed last week).

We begin  with resistance at 1.0718, which  has  not been tested  since  March. Next, there is strong resistance at 1.0605, just above the round figure of 1.06. This is followed by resistance at 1.0557, which has held firm since the pair started a downward turn in mid-September.   This is followed by 1.0482, which  saw action in mid-September.  Next, there is resistance at 1.0402, just above the round number of 1.04. Below, there is resistance at 1.0340. This line remained  intact as the pair pushed  higher, climbing close to  1.03.  The next line of resistance is at 1.0230, where AUD/USD ended the week, as the aussie improved slightly.

AUD/USD  continues to receive support at 1.0174. However, this line is weak, and was breached  early this week when the  pair dropped.  This is followed by 1.0080, which is protecting the psychologically important parity level. The parity line, last tested in June, is the next line of support. We next encounter support at 0.9917. This is followed by 0.9815, which has held firm since June. Next, there is support at 0.9726. This is followed by support at 0.9661. This line was last tested in early June, when the Australian dollar started a strong rally. The final support level for now is 0.9537. This strong line has held firm since October 2011.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

After a steep loss following the unexpected rate cut by the RBA, the pair had a quieter week. Australian data has not been impressive, and the rate cut could  still serve as a catalyst  for the aussie to drop towards the important parity line. On the flip side, if the US continues to show some improvement, such as recent employment numbers, we may see the Aussie move back up as investors feel less of a need to stick to the safe-haven greenback.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.