AUD/USD leaning lower – break or bounce?

Aussie/USD is trading around 0.7850, keep a wider distance from the round 0.80 level. Has it concluded its correction and ready to resume the uptrend? Or is it on the way up?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

AUD/USD: S/T Correction Risk But M/T Bullish Setup Intact: Levels & Target – NAB

NAB FX Technical Strategy Research notes that the the  medium-term positive technical setup for AUD/USD remains intact  after shifting to a new level upon the July breakout close above key resistance levels.

“Both price and momentum triggers remain positive at a MT/LT level,” NAB adds.

However, in the very near term, NAB notes that recent negative price and  short-term momentum triggers highlights risk of a correction towards 0.7710/30.  

“While weekly closes remain above 0.7710/30 we  target a multi-week to multi-month uptrend towards 0.8250/0.8300,” NAB argues.

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AUD/USD: Technicals Trump Fundamentals For Now – Barclays

Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that as data and events continue to dry up over the summer,  technical analysis, seasonal factors and positioning may become more important market drivers.

As a result, we have constructed an aggregate score of these drivers across 27 currency pairs to establish where they are most relevant. For technical indicators, we use a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) as a measure of momentum, along with the moving average convergence/divergence using 50- and 200-day moving averages, as a measure of trendfollowing momentum.

Across the 27 pairs,  Barclays  finds that technical support is greatest for AUD/USD  and as such, Barclays advises trend-following traders to consider long exposure in the pair than in other majors.

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