The Aussie is expected a critical week that contains an unknown outcome in the rate decision and the all-important employment figures among other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated AUD/USD technical analysis.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
Despite the greenback’s weakness during the week, the Aussie got hurt by two Australian figures – retail sales and building approvals. Is the Aussie losing its charm? Or was it a temporary glitch? I’m optimistic… Let’s start the review:
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. The number of jobs advertised on newspapers continues to serve as a good gauge for the job market, despite its volatility. After a drop of 8.1% two months ago, a leap of 19.1% was reported last month. A smaller rise is predicted this time. The impact will be strong as it’s published close tot eh official job figures.
- Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. The Australian interest rate reached 4% last month. This high rate is a result of 4 consecutive rate hikes. No other Western countries followed Australia. The head of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, signaled that another hike is due, but the recent figures showed that the Australian economy cooled down and that a pause could be seen this time. Economists are split between expectations of a hike to 4.25% and a unchanged decision. This uncertainty means a shaky time for the currency.
- AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. The Australian Industry Group releases a PMI-like index for the services sector. After being above 50 (economic expansion), this index went under in the past two months, indicating contraction. A rise from 48.3 to around 50 is expected this time.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. 4 months of excellent surprises came to a halt with last month’s employment figures, which were only OK – and insignificant job gain of 400 jobs. This time, a gain of 20,000 is predicted. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 5.3%. This will definitely rock the Aussie, and could send it above 0.9327.
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release by AIG relates to the housing sector. Last month’s score was fine – 52.8 points, but the recent building approvals figure was disappointing. It’s now predicted to drop.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie began the week with a quick recovery above the 0.9090 resistance line. It later climbed above 0.9190 but didn’t really manage to close above it.
Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. Looking down, 0.9090 continues to be a line of support for the Aussie. This is followed by 0.8980, which worked in the previous week.
Lower, 0.8735, December’s low is an important line of support, followed by 0.8567, which was last seen in October and retested in February.
Looking up above 0.9190, 0.9327 is still the strongest resistance line around. It stopped the Aussie many times in the past. In the one time that this line was breached, 0.94 served as the next line of resistance – the 2009 high.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The rate decision and the employment figures, that should be better than last time, could supply the Aussie the fuel needed to make the break.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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