AUD/USD Outlook – August 3-7 2009

This week, AUD/USD faces 6 major events which will shape it’s trading. After closing above another resistance line, the prospects look good for the Aussie. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and a technical analysis for the AUD/USD:

Major releases in Australia this week. The interest rate decision will stand out, but the others are also of great importance. Here they are:

1. Retail Sales: Australian Retail sales have show nice growth in the last three months, including a big surprise last month – a rise of 1%, double than expected. Current expectations are more modest, a rise of only 0.5%. A surprise sure is possible. Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT.
2. Rate decision: Australia holds the highest interest rate in the West, and will probably continue to hold that title. Glenn Stevens and co. feel comfortable with a 3% Cash Rate for the strong Australian economy. The wording of the RBA Rate Statement will therefore be carefully listened to. How do the RBA members see the current situation? Will the Australian economy continue to be resilient? Is the Chinese strength that good for Australia? We’ll hear about it on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT.
3. Trade Balance: Australia’s export and commodity oriented economy usually enjoys a surplus in trade balance. The previous months have been very disappointing, as they recorded a deficit. Expectations for this month are quite low, with a predicted deficit of 790 million, after last month’s 560 million. A quick return to a surplus will be a big surprise. Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT.
4. Employment Change: A third consecutive month of job losses is expected in Australia. After losing 21.4K jobs last month, Australian job losses are predicted to be “only” 17.8K this month. This figure is published on Thursday at 1:30 AM, together with its twin unemployment rate figure.
5. Unemployment Rate:  Contrary to most countries, the unemployment rate isn’t going straight up in Australia. April’s figures (published in May) recorded a big surprise by falling significantly. Current unemployment rate stands at 5.8%, and it’s predicted to rise to the round number of 6%. Previous results suggest that a surprise is possible also now. The impact may be weakened by the unemployment change figure aforementioned.
6. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Despite the publication of the RBA Rate Statement, this report has a great significance for the AUD/USD since it focuses on future policy, especially interest rate, which can go both ways in Australia. It’s published on Friday at 1:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie managed to climb above the 0.8280 resistance line which held strong during May and June. Looking upwards, the next significant spot is 0.8531 which served as a peak in October 2008. The next resistance line is at 0.8830, which worked as a resistance line before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Looking down, the previous resistance line at 0.8280 now serves as a support line. Below this point, 0.77 is a very important spot, as it worked as a resistance line and as a support line recently. Also note that there was a big gap at this spot back last year, when the Aussie collapsed.

All in all, the strong Australian economy, backed by a high interest rate makes AUD/USD bullish.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of this week’s events, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.
• For a coverage of USD/CAD, read the Canadian Dollar Outlook.
• For GBP/USD, here’s the British Pound Outlook.
• For NZD/USD, read the New Zealand Dollar Outlook.

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