AUD/USD Outlook – December 20-24

Towards Christmas, the calendar is rather light, but still includes some important figures for the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The  Aussie managed to top parity in the past week, rising on temporary optimism, but it then retreated. Will it improve its positions towards the new year?

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This composite index of 7 indicators disappointed with a dip last month. A correction is expected this time with a small rise. While most of the components have already been released, the release still has an impact on the Aussie.
2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The RBA decided not to change the interest rates in its last meeting, as expected, but the tone of the statement was surprisingly good. We’ll now get a better view of the bank’s views on the economy, inflation and employment. The protocols always rock the Aussie.
3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The Melbourne Institute has a composite index of its own, made out of 9 indicators. Given the thin trading conditions, any figure will shake the currency. After remaining unchanged last time, a rise is predicted now.

The Aussie had a strong start to the week, topping parity. But it remained there only for a short time, before it dropped and traded in a narrow range, between 0.9840 and 0.9920, finally closing in the middle – 0.9879, a weekly change of only 20 pips.

Note that some of the lines have been modified since last week’s outlook.

Looking down, 0.9840 provided support for the pair in the past week, and also was a pivotal line beforehand. It provides immediate support. Below,  0.9724 worked as support several times in recent weeks and is a strong line now.

Lower, 0.9660 is now only a minor support, but it’s still significant. Below, 0.9540 proved to be a very strong line, being a swing low a few months ago, and also two weeks ago.  Even lower, 0.9465 provided support for the pair when it struggled on the way up, and is already stronger support.

The next lines are close – 0.9366 was a peak back in April, and 0.9327 capped the pair lots of times beforehand. 0.9220 was a peak earlier in the year and is the last support line for now.

Looking up, 0.9920 worked as a high hurdle on the way to parity, and has the same role now.  AUD/USD is not only a very round number, but also proved to be a strong line of resistance.

Beyond parity, 1.0085 was the bottom border of a high range the Aussie enjoyed at the beginning of November, and the upper border is 1.0180. Beyond these levels, it’s uncharted territory, with 1.03 being the next line.

I remain neutral on the Aussie for another week.

The greenback’s strength, especially with higher yields on bonds, and the uncertainty about the Chinese moves balances the great Australian fundamentals.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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