The Aussie finally enjoyed a good week and made some gains. The upcoming week contains lots of important speeches that will shape the direction of the Aussie. Here’s an outlook for this week’s 7 Australian events and and updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Australian employment figures exceeded expectations for fourth month in a row. This was the main driver of the Aussie. Will these gains convince policymakers to renew the rate hikes? We’ll get a lot of information about it this week. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT. The last Australian rate decision was quite disappointing – no rate hike. This happened after 3 consecutive hikes and came as a surprise. We’ll get to know why. The release will shake the Aussie.
- NAB Business Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT and overshadowed by the meeting minutes. The last release was just two weeks ago, and it showed a drop in business confidence – according to NAB survey of 350 businesses. It fell from 19 to 8 points – still in the positive zone. A similar figure is expected this time.
- Guy Debelle talks: Speaks on Tuesday at 1:45 GMT. The RBA Assistant Governor is an influential member of the RBA and also has an important role in the decision to leave the interest rate unchanged despite rising inflation. His speech might refer to future policy will likely rock the Aussie.
- MI Leading Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute publishes a compound index out of 9 economic indicators. Although many of them have already been released, this sometimes surprises and is also revised afterwards, usually to the upside. The rise of 1% is expected to be followed by a rise of lesser scale.
- Philip Lowe talks: Talks on Wednesday at 22:20 GMT. Continuing the parade of speakers, Lowe will join with his own views. Prospects on future rate hikes after the recent pause will move the currency.
- NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. This is complementary release to Tuesday’s monthly release. After reaching a positive score of 16 points in the previous quarter, this indicator probably won’t stay so high this time, but it will likely be positive, indicating continuing improving economic conditions.
- Glenn Stevens speaks: Talks on Thursday at 22:30 GMT. This speech is of high importance as it’s an official testimony in parliament. Stevens will lay out the economic situation in front of an official committee that might give him a hard time.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD began the week on a positive note, climbing up to 0.8780. The move strengthened toward the end of the week, as the pair peaked at 0.8910, and closed at 0.8876.
I’ve marked 0.8780 as a new support line. It wasn’t there last week. This provides initial and minor support. Below, 0.8567 was a support line before the Aussie pushed higher and last week as well. Even lower, 0.8477 was a strong resistance line during the summer, before the Aussie made an upwards push.
Looking up, 0.8950 is still a might resistance line. A convincing break of 0.8950 is necessary for the bulls to rage an for my sentiment to turn bullish.
Even higher, 0.9090 is the next line of resistance, working as such several times in recent month. Above, 0.9170 is another line of resistance after working as a temporary support line.
Way above, 0.9322 is a very strong resistance line, being breached only once in 2009, and otherwise causing the pair to bounce.
I continue to be neutral on AUD/USD.
On one hand, the great employment figures reminded us about the Australian economy’s strength. On the other hand, the Chinese tightening measures and also the ongoing Greek crisis continue to trigger risk aversion, which moves money away from the Aussie.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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