After a very strong week, job figures are the highlight of the upcoming week for Aussie traders. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar enjoyed a hawkish tone from the rate statement. The RBA sounded confident about the global economy, dismissed the floods and paved the way for rises. Also the spike commodity prices, especially copper, helped AUD/USD, as well as the minor damage inflicted by cyclone Yasi. Will this trend continue?
AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The Australia Industry Group provides a PMI-like indicator for the construction sector. This has been struggling in low levels, indicating contraction in this sector. The figure is expected to be slightly better than last month’s 43.8 points, but still under 50.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This is a very powerful indicator for the official job figures later in the week. The amount of jobs ads rose by 2% last month, and is expected to rise once again, although slightly slower.
- Retail Sales: Monday, 00:30. Despite being released at the same time as the job ads indicator, this consumer figure always rocks the Aussie. Last month’s weak rise of 0.3% is likely to be followed by a stronger rise this time.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. 1200 consumers are surveyed by the Westpac banking group. They have showed a drop of 5.7% last month. A small correction is predicted this time.
- Employment data: Thursday, 00:30. The Australian job market gained only 2300 jobs last month, significantly weaker than expectations and figures in previous months. Following the floods in Queensland, this month isn’t expected to be much better. The unemployment rate, which unexpectedly dropped to 5% is likely to remain unchanged.
- Chinese Trade Balance: Thursday. Australia’s main trade partner saw a big drop in its huge surplus, monitored by all the world. This surplus is expected to correct and rise back to around 20 billion.
* All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie began the journey north at the beginning of the week. After breaking above parity, the pair managed to settle above the 1.0080 line (mentioned last week) before a failed attempt to break above 1.0180. It closed at 1.0135, a nice weekly gain.
Looking up, the immediate barrier is at 1.0180, which was a high peak in November, after the first break above parity.
Higher, the multi-year high of 1.0254 provides further resistance. Unchartered territory is above, with 1.03 being a possible resistance line.
Looking down, 1.0080 now turns into support. Apart from being the ultimate round number, it worked as strong support in recent weeks.
Below, minor support is found at 0.9915, which was a peak on the way up. More important is found at 0.98, the lowest level in 2011 so far.
Lower, 0.9724, that was a tough line beforehand. Next we find 0.9660 – it worked in both directions, and especially as a cushion back in October.
Further below, 0.9540 was the bottom in November and also in September, and serves as important support. Even lower, 0.9460 was a stepping stone on the way.
The next two lines are neighbors – 0.9366 and 0.9327 worked as resistance lines many times in the past. The last line on the downside is 0.9220, a peak seen many months ago.
I am bullish on AUD/USD
The positive outlook from the RBA and the relative strength that followed the US Non-Farm Payrolls, shows that the Australian dollar will to outperform.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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