AUD/USD Outlook – January 18-22

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: AUD/USD Forecast

The Aussie enjoyed strong job numbers but didn’t make a breakthrough, but the Aussie remains strong. This week has some Australian figures, but Aussie traders will focus on China. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Australia’s high interest rate has a bigger change of rising, now that employment has shown strength. We’ll have to wait about two weeks for that. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

1. NAB Business Confidence: This index was expected to be released last week and was delayed. The exact time isn’t known at the moment. The National Australia Bank surveys about 350 business about their expectations for the near future. This index has been on the rise in the past three months, reaching a high of 19 positive points.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT (Delayed from last week). The Melbourne Institute independently measures inflation. Last month it showed a rise of 0.3% in prices, after slower months beforehand. A small acceleration is predicted now.
3. MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at midnight. This, second inflation figure from the Melbourne Institute, measures prices from the consumers’ perspective. Expectations have risen from 3.2% to 3.6% and are expected to edge higher this time.
4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. The Westpac Banking Corporation issues a survey of 1200 consumers which measures their confidence. This index fell in the past two months after 5 strong months of rising. A modest rise is predicted this time.
5. Chinese GDP and Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 2:00 GMT. . The Chinese economy, third largest in the world, has a strong impact on Australia. Many Chinese numbers are published at this time. GDP is the most important. It’s expected to rise from an annual rate of 8.9% to a double-digit 10.5% growth rate – this already caused Chinese policymakers to begin tightening measures. The second most important figure is Industrial Production. This annual number is expected to rise from 19.2% to 19.6%. Note that not only the Aussie feels the Chinese releases.
6. Import Prices: Published on Friday at 00:30 GMT. Speaking of import and export, the quarterly import prices figure reflects this well. In the first three quarters of 2009, prices fell, expressing the global crisis. A positive number isn’t expected in Q4, but a smaller drop of 1.7% will help after bigger drops last time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a leap above last week’s highs and tested the important 0.9328 resistance line. It failed to breach this stronghold and later traded between 0.92 to to 0.9328, closing at 0.9222.

Initial support lies at 0.92, a line that I’ve modified from last week’s outlook. Looking lower, 0.9090 provides minor support. Below, 0.8950 is an important support line which served as a support and resistance line in the past.

Look lower, 0.8735 was the bottom in December began, before the current rally and provides support. Below the area of 0.8477 to 0.8520 held the Aussie back in the past, and is now a a major and far resistance line.

Looking up, if the 0.9328 line is broken, 0.9405 is the next line of resistance. It was the peak of 2009. Higher, 0.95 is a round number and played a role a long time ago.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

The recent employment figures strengthened the Aussie bulls. This week’s Chinese figures should help the Aussie break the current resistance line.

Update: Casey Stubbs also provides a fresh Aussie technical analysis, which I highly recommend reading.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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