AUD/USD Outlook – June 13-17

The Aussie retreated and lost gains of a few weeks. The upcoming week consists of quite a few events that can move the currency. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now in the lower end of the wide range.

It was a busy week for Aussie traders. Employment figures disappointed once again,with a very small gain in jobs. The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, and the future isn’t clear. The head of the RBA will have a chance to clarify future policy now. Let’s start:

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. The  National Australia Bank has shown a deterioration in business confidence in the past two months. The score halved from 14 to 7 during this time. A stabilization is likely now.
2. Chinese  CPI: Tuesday, 2:00. Is Australia’s main partner overheating? This is one of the questions debated in the last few months. The official figure is at around 5% (annually) in the past few months. A rise from 5.3% to 5.5% is expected now.
3. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute, which also publishes inflation indicators, now releases a wide indicator of the economy – a combination of 9 other figures. The past four months have been positive, with some also including upwards revisions of previous releases. A weaker rise than last month’s +0.5% is likely now.
4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. The picture isn’t too good according to Westpac. Its consumer sentiment indicator, based on a survey of 1200 consumers, has been choppy in recent months. Another small drop is now expected, after the significant 1.3% drop last time.
5. MI Inflation Expectations: Wednesday, 1:00. Official inflation and also MI’s unofficial numbers are elevated and have been above an annual level of 3% for some time. The ease to 3.3% last month will probably be followed with another drop, but the number will likely remain above 3%.
6. Glenn Stevens talks: Wednesday, 2:00. The governor of the RBA will speak in  Brisbane and will have a chance to clarify future rate moves in Australia. Both cuts and hikes are possible in 2011.
7. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Thursday, 1:30. While this indicator is quite volatile, it still is a good gauge of the economy. After a drop of 3.5% last month, a small rise is likely now.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie made fresh attempts to break above the 1.0775 line, which it encountered at the end of the previous week. But after this barrier held, the pair fell and eventually even lost the 1.0580 line.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

The  float era high of 1.1012 is already a definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10.  1.0850 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It proved to be quite strong just now and is of high importance.

1.0775 was a key resistance level in the past weeks, and it remains a very tough resistance line.  1.07 was a pivotal line for another week in. It now works as weak resistance.

1.0580 turns into strong resistance, after it was broken. It capped the pair for long days and provided support just now. It will hold any recovery attempt.  The round number of 1.05 managed to cushion the recent fall, and returns to be of importance..

1.0440 proved to be a very strong support line after being a swing low a few weeks ago.  1.0390 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April and is weak support now.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315.  It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still far behind.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

There are too many worrying signs about the Australian economy, though it is still strong. The US economy is still doing worse. 1.0440 to 1.0775 is the wide range to watch.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.