AUD/USD Outlook March 19-23

Updates: AUD/USD climbed above 1.06, trading at 1.0601. CB Leading Index was up a strong 1.1%, its best reading since October 2009. AUD/USD dropped sharply, dropping below the 1.05 line and trading at 1.0489. MI Leading Index was up by 0.6%, a five-month high. AUD/USD continues to weaken, trading at 1.0378.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

RBA Gov Stevens Speaks: Monday, 1:o0. Anytime the head of the central bank speaks, analysts look for clues as to future monetary policy. A speech that is more hawkish than the markets expect is bullish for the aussie.
CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This composite index is comprised of seven economic indicators. The index rose a modest 0.2% in February. Will the indicator stay in positive territory in the March reading?
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This report is issued monthly, and summarizes the most recent meeting of the RBA Reserve Bank Board. The report is significant in that it discusses the central bank’s monetary policy; in particular, the factors and conditions that led to the bank’s most recent interest rate decision.
MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This composite index is made up of nine economic indicators. The index was up a healthy 0.5% in February, its best reading since October 2011. Another strong reading this month could give a boost to the Australian dollar.
Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 2:30. Traders should keep an eye on this important index, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The index came in at 49.7 in February. If the index can crosss the critical 50 level, this would indicate some expansion in the Chinese manufacturing sector, which would likely increase the demand for Australian exports, as well as Australian dollars.

*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0530. As the dollar strengthened, the pair dropped all the way to 1.0423. AUD/USD then recovered, climbing up to 1.0597, and closing the week at 1.0585, as this resistance line (discussed last week) held firm.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

We begin with the resistance line of 1.1090, which was last tested in August of 2011. Next is 1.1009, just above the psychologically important level of 1.10. This is followed by strong resistance at 1.0884. Below, the round number of 1.08 is providing resistance to the pair. The next line of resistance is at 1.0724. This is followed by 1.0650, which has strengthened as a resistance level. Next, 1.0585 continues to provide weak resistance line, as the pair closed the week right on this line. It could fall on any upward swing by the pair. Below, there is weak resistance at 1.0525.

AUD/USD dropped as low as 1.0423, as the dollar showed some strength before retracting. The support level of 1.0383 line has been solid in this role since January. Next, there is support at 1.0320. Below, is the support line of 1.0250. This is followed by 1.02, a strong support line. This is followed by 1.0080, which is protecting the all-important parity level.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

AUD/USD managed to blunt the US dollar’s surge this week, but the trend over the past few weeks has been downwards, as the pair is trading over two cents lower since the beginning of March. As the US economy continues to gain steam, this downward trend could continue.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

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