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Everything turned against the Aussie, and it closed a terrible week with a loss of about 550 pips. The upcoming week consists of 5 events that will move the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now at lower ground.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

AUD/USD Forecast

Indications for a pause in rate hikes, lower inflation expectations, a drop in consumer confidence and the European debt issues (risk aversion), all hurt the Aussie, which needed (rumored) intervention to stabilize. Let’s start:

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. The automotive industry is a strong one in Australia and moves the currency, especially as it comes on a rather empty calendar on Monday. Sales fell in the past three months after many months of rises. They’re expected to rise now.
  2. MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. This composite index from the Melbourne  Institute, based on 9 indicators that most of them have already been released, rose by 0.5% last time, similar to previous months. A rise above 1% this time will push the Aussie higher.
  3. Construction Work Done: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This important quarterly indicator from the housing sector exceeded expectations in the past 3 quarters, with great leaps. Q4’s 2.6% rise will probably be followed by a 4.1% rise this time.
  4. CB Leading Index: Published on Thursday at midnight GMT. Contrary to MI’s indicator, the leading index from the Conference Board dropped in the past two months. A rise is predicted this time. Note that this index is based on 7 indicators, rather than 9 in the previous one.
  5. Private Capital Expenditure: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of new capital / investments in Australia is a very important indicator, as it’s a quarterly one. After a drop of 5.2% in Q3, expenditure jumped by 5.5% in Q4. A milder rise of 2.6% is predicted this time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week by losing the 0.88 support line, that held it in recent weeks. It then lost the all-important 0.8567 line that was the lowest point since October and also the 2010 low, until this week. Trouble continued as the pair broke under the important 0.8240 line, which worked as a resistance and as a support line before AUD/USD went to higher ground. After bottoming out at 0.8071, it closed at 0.8308. A very exciting and awful week for the Aussie.

Many lines have been added on last week’s outlook. The current range for the pair is between the important support line of 0.8240 and the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which worked as a strong resistance line before the pair broke higher.

Lower, 0.8040 is the next line of support, serving as such long ago. Significant support can be found at 0.77, which was the place that the Aussie dropped from in the height of the financial crisis, back in October 2008. It also worked as a support line last summer.

Even lower, 0.7450, the place where the Aussie fell to during the crisis is another significant support line. It’s followed by 0.71.

Looking up, 0.8567 continues to be an important line. A break above this line will mean a strong correction. Above this line, 0.88 is the next resistance line, followed by 0.90, 0.9135 and the almighty 0.9327 resistance line. Note that most lines worked as support lines just a few weeks ago.

I’m neutral on the Aussie.

It’s drop last week was the biggest move since October 2008. On one hand, the loss of 0.8567 means bearish momentum, but on the other hand, it’s in oversold territory. The rate hikes worked so well, that the economy cooled down. It will take at least another week before the pair stabilizes and a new direction will be seen.

Further reading:

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