The Aussie had a very volatile week which it eventually closed lower. The highlight of the upcoming week is the meeting minutes, which might provide guidance on future policy. Here is an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar couldn’t escape the European worries, and dipped to the 2010 peak. The news regarding Greece will continue accompanying us.
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged yet again. The big question is future policy: Is Glenn Stevens or any of his colleagues considering a rate cut anytime soon? The meeting minutes can provide answers.
- MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute combines 9 economic indicators for its monthly composite index. After a dip two months ago, the index returned to rising, by only 0.1%. A similar rise is expected now.
- Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 2:00. Australia’s main trade partner’s manufacturing sector has stalled according to this independent measure provided by HSBC. The score of 49.9, just under the 50 point mark is better than the previous month’s more serious contraction. A rise above 50 points is likely now.
- CB Leading Index: Friday, 00:00. Contrary to the previous composite index, this one fell also last month, and quite significantly – 0.8% – rather worrying. A small rise is expected now.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Aussie/dollar began the week with a drop under the critical 1.0420 level (mentioned last week) and could not recover since then. 1.0180 was a significant bottom border before the pair recovered and closed at 1.0360.
Technical levels from top to bottom:
1.0764 was a key resistance level in May and June also served as strong resistance at the beginning of September. It is now far away. 1.0660 capped the pair earlier in the month, and also worked as support in July.
The round number of 1.06 worked as resistance back in August and is a minor line now. 1.0530 managed to cap the pair during August, after working as support in July. It is also only minor now.
1.0480 returns after providing support just now and also earlier in the year. It is immediate resistance now. After being broken to the downside, 1.0420 switched to be a distinct and strong cap. This is a key resistance line that will be tested on any recovery attempt.
1.0314 was a stepping stone on the way up at the beginning of the year, and worked well in the opposite direction. It is somewhat weaker now. Further below, the 2010 high of 1.0254 is support, and its not too far.
1.0180 was the top border of range trading at the end of 2010 and provided a critical cushion just now. 1.0120 was a nice cushion during the recovery and is further support.
The next line is obvious: AUD/USD parity. The very round number isn’t that strong though. Below parity, 0.9930 provides support after holding back in August.
The 0.98 line served as support early in the year, and is the final frontier before the year-to-date low of 0.9696.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD.
Even if the Federal Reserve embarks on fresh easing measures (probably not QE3), the Australian dollar is still vulnerable due to the rising chances of big rate cuts. The RBA has a lot of room to cut from the current rate of 4.75%.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.