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Australian GDP is the primary  gauge of the production and growth of the economy. It is considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity, and  a reading which is higher than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Australian GDP is released on a quarterly basis, and provides an excellent indication of the health and size of the Australian economy. An unexpected reading can quickly affect the movement of AUD/USD.

GDP posted a gain of 0.5% in Q2, edging above the estimate of 0.6%. GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.2% in Q3.  Will the indicator repeat and beat the estimate?

Sentiments and levels

The RBA is expected to maintain rates at 1.50%, while the Fed is virtually certain to raise rates next week. This means that monetary divergence continues to favor the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7737, 0.7626, 0.7513, 0.7427, 0.7333 and  0.7223

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: – 0.1% to 0.5%. In such a scenario, the AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 0.6% to 1.0%: An unexpected higher reading can send  the pair  above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 1.0%: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could push AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: -0.6% to -0.2%:   A  weak reading  could push AUD/USD below one  support line.
  5. Well below expectations:  Below -0.6%.  In this scenario, we could see the pair drop below a second support level.

For more on AUD/USD, see the Australian dollar forecast.