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Forex Daily Outlook – February 26th 2009

Lots of data is due today, with 3 major releases in the US: Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales. Important figures are also released in Britain and New Zealand. Take a deep breath…

In Australia,  Private Capital Expenditure rose by 6%, much much better than expected (-3.1%). AUD/USD now trades at 0.6470.

In its neighbor, New Zealand,  NBNZ Business Confidence was set at -41.2. NZD/USD is at 0.5150.

Lots of European data today:  GfK German Consumer Climate rose more than expected, by 2.6%. Later in Europe:  German Prelim CPI (0.3% expected),  German Unemployment Change (60K) .

More data in Europe:also  M3 Money Supply,  Private Loans and  Consumer Confidence. At 13:00, Jean Claude Trichet will speak and shake the markets. EUR/USD now at 1.2710.

In Britain, there are no good news: monthly  Nationwide HPI fell by 1.8%, worse than expected. The beaten pound now trades at: 1.4162. Later in Britain, a speech by Mervyn King  on the banking crisis before Parliament’s Treasury Committee, in London.

From 13:30 GMT, American data will dominate the scene:  Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall by 2.4%, and Core  Durable Goods Orders  by 2.1%, better than last month.  

At the same time,  Unemployment Claims are released, and they are expected to stay stable, at 628K, very similar to last month’s figures.

After an hour and a half, New Home Sales will be released. Stability is expected here as well – 325K. It could be disappointing after yesterday’s Existing Home Sales.

In New Zealand,  Building Consents from New Zealand will be released at 21:45 GMT.

And just before midnight GMT, lots of Japanese data will be unleashed:  Household Spending is expected to fall by 5.7%, worse than last month.  Tokyo Core CPI is expected to be stable, at 0.3% and  National Core CPI is predicted to fall by 0.1%.  

Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 4.6%, still not that bad.

But a really bad and important figure is  Prelim Industrial Production, which is expected to fall by 10.2% (!).  Retail Sales are also expected to fall by 3%, also worse than 2.7%.

Enough bad data for today? Hopefully it will be an exciting day in the forex market..

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.